Rising Three Methods Pattern Formed on NEPSE: A Bullish Signal for Investors
Author
Dipesh Ghimire
The Nepal Stock Exchange (NEPSE) is currently displaying a strong bullish signal with the formation of the Rising Three Methods candlestick pattern. This well-known continuation pattern is a reliable indicator of upward momentum in the stock market and has drawn the attention of investors seeking opportunities for growth.
Understanding the Rising Three Methods Pattern
The Rising Three Methods is a bullish continuation pattern in technical analysis, signaling that an existing uptrend is likely to persist. It typically consists of the following components:
The First Candle: A large green (bullish) candle that establishes a strong upward trend.
The Middle Candles: Three or more smaller red (bearish) candles that remain within the range of the first candle. These candles represent a temporary consolidation or pullback.
The Last Candle: A large green candle that surpasses the high of the first candle, confirming the continuation of the uptrend.
The Rising Three Methods reflects that while sellers attempt to push the price down during the consolidation phase, the buyers regain control, leading to a resumption of the uptrend.
Technical Insights from NEPSE
Recent price action in NEPSE shows a textbook Rising Three Methods pattern, reinforcing bullish momentum. The pattern aligns with the following technical observations:
Strong Support at 2580: The index has successfully tested and held the critical support level at 2580, providing a safety zone for buyers.
Resistance at 2669: The market is approaching a key resistance level at 2669. A breakout above this level could confirm the continuation of the upward trend and signal further gains for the NEPSE index.
Volume Confirmation: The pattern is supported by volume data, with significantly higher trading volumes during green candlestick days, reflecting strong buying activity and market confidence.
Additionally, NEPSE has witnessed a Change of Character (CHoCH) and a shift in market structure, suggesting that the bulls are gaining control after a period of consolidation. The presence of higher lows (HL) and the weakening of lower highs (LH) further indicate the potential for an upward breakout.
Investor Implications
The formation of the Rising Three Methods on NEPSE is a strong indication that the market is preparing for a bullish move. Here’s what it means for different types of investors:
Long-Term Investors: This is a signal to hold or accumulate positions. The pattern suggests the continuation of the overall bullish trend, making it an attractive time to invest.
Short-Term Traders: Traders may find opportunities for short-term gains by entering near support levels and targeting the resistance at 2669 and beyond.
Risk Management: Setting a stop-loss slightly below the 2580 support level is advisable to minimize potential downside risks.
Market Sentiment and Future Outlook
The Rising Three Methods pattern signifies renewed optimism among investors, particularly as NEPSE stabilizes after a period of volatility. If the resistance at 2669 is breached with strong volume, it could lead to the following potential targets:
First Target: 2800 level
Second Target: 2950 level
However, external factors such as macroeconomic events, regulatory announcements, and global market trends could still influence the market's trajectory. Therefore, investors should remain vigilant and consider combining technical analysis with fundamental insights.
