
The NEPSE Journal
Market commentary, data deep-dives, and trading notes from the NEPSE Trading desk.

Nepal’s government posted a budget surplus of Rs. 31.1B in mid-August 2025/26, driven by strong revenues and restrained spending — a rare but positive fiscal shift.

Despite record reserves of Rs. 2.95 trillion, Nepal’s net foreign assets fell by Rs. 89 billion in mid-August 2025/26 due to external payments, loan outflows, and valuation adjustments.

BFIs’ foreign reserves surged 12 percent to Rs. 294.6 billion in mid-August 2025, driven by remittance inflows and rising convertible assets, signaling a stronger role for commercial banks in Nepal’s external stability.

Nepal’s reserves-to-imports ratio jumped to 138.3%, ensuring one of the region’s safest foreign exchange buffers, though long-term sustainability depends on export-led growth and investment diversification.

Nepal’s reserves-to-GDP ratio has surged to 45.9%, signaling strong external stability and improved macroeconomic fundamentals, but experts warn that long-term sustainability hinges on export and investment growth.

Nepal’s import financing capacity has climbed to 20.4 months for goods and 16.6 months for goods + services, backed by rising reserves and remittance inflows — the highest level of external strength in years.

Nepal Rastra Bank’s foreign reserves crossed Rs. 2.5 trillion in mid-August 2025, a 4% monthly rise driven by strong remittances and a BoP surplus, marking the strongest external stability in years.

In 2025/26, Nepal’s foreign reserves hit Rs. 2.95 trillion, with 76.6% in convertible global currencies and 23.4% in INR, marking a steady shift toward India-linked reserves.