The NEPSE Journal
Market commentary, data deep-dives, and trading notes from the NEPSE Trading desk.
Nepal’s average wholesale inflation was 3.84% in 2024/25, down from 8.47% in 2022/23, showing improved stability. While prices spiked in winter (Dec +6.52%), they slowed sharply by mid-2025 (July +1.05%), pointing to easing pressures but persistent seasonal risks.
Nepal’s WPI showed strong gains in winter 2024 (Nov–Dec up to +6.52%), but slowed significantly by mid-2025 (June +1.56%, July +1.05%). Seasonal food shortages and construction costs drove winter spikes, while harvest supplies and stable imports brought relief by mid-year.
Nepal’s WPI rose just 1.05% in July 2025 (and 1.56% in June), the slowest growth of the year. Stable food and fuel prices, along with contained manufacturing costs, eased wholesale inflation. This slowdown signals short-term relief but also highlights Nepal’s seasonal price swings.
In December 2025, Nepal’s WPI jumped 6.52% year-on-year, the sharpest rise of the fiscal year. Seasonal demand, festival consumption, and rising costs in food and construction materials drove the surge, raising concerns about potential spillovers into consumer inflation and real estate costs.
Nepal’s Wholesale Price Index rose 2.37% in August 2025, the slowest pace in four years. Compared to double-digit wholesale inflation in 2022/23, cost pressures have eased steadily, reflecting greater stability in food, fuel, and manufactured goods. This trend points to reduced inflationary risks for households and industries in the near term.
Nepal’s intermediate goods inflation eased to 1.14% in July–August 2025/26, reflecting stable input costs in chemicals, plastics, and machinery. This reduces industrial cost pressures but also signals sluggish demand, with wholesale inflation now more concentrated in consumer and construction goods.
Nepal’s construction material prices rose 4.08% in July–August 2025/26, reversing last year’s decline. Non-metallic minerals (+16.73%) and basic metals (+9.54%) drove the rise, raising costs for housing projects, real estate, and infrastructure, with likely pass-through effects on property prices.
In July–August 2025/26, consumption goods inflation rose 3.89%, driven by food and consumer demand, while capital goods remained stable at 1.09%, reflecting slow investment growth. Nepal’s wholesale inflation is thus being powered more by consumer spending than industrial expansion.
Nepal’s Non-Metallic Mineral Products prices jumped 16.73% in July–August 2025/26, reversing last year’s steep decline. Strong construction demand and costlier raw materials have driven the rebound, raising concerns about rising housing and infrastructure costs.
Nepal’s basic metals prices surged 9.54% in July–August 2025/26, driving up construction and infrastructure costs. Steel and iron prices rose sharply due to global market pressures and rising demand, creating inflationary risks across housing, machinery, and industrial sectors.