The NEPSE Journal
Market commentary, data deep-dives, and trading notes from the NEPSE Trading desk.
In FY 2025/26, Nepal’s export share in total trade rose to 14.3%, while import dependence fell to 85.7%. Strong exports to India boosted this shift, but weak diversification and a large trade deficit remain challenges.
Nepal’s foreign trade surged 18.8% to Rs. 1.66 trillion in 2025/26, driven by a 95.7% rise in exports and an 11.4% increase in imports. While the trade deficit remains large, strong export growth—especially to India—offered some relief.
China supplied 19.6% of Nepal’s imports in FY 2025/26, worth Rs. 279.96 billion, but took just 0.2% of Nepal’s exports (Rs. 54.8 million). This widened the deficit by 14.6%, underlining one of Nepal’s most unequal trade relationships.
India dominated Nepal’s exports in FY 2025/26, taking 81.3% of total exports worth Rs. 19.45 billion, while exports to China and other countries declined. Though this boosted earnings, Nepal’s heavy reliance on India raises long-term risks.
Nepal’s export-to-import ratio rose to 16.7% in FY 2025/26, led by a sharp improvement with India at 23.3%. While this narrowed the India deficit, weak performance with China and limited diversification mean Nepal’s trade dependency remains high.
Nepal’s trade with other countries grew 17.3% in FY 2025/26, with imports rising strongly (+20.5%) and exports slipping slightly (-1.4%). While the deficit widened, diversified trade ties help Nepal reduce reliance on India and China.
In FY 2025/26, Nepal’s imports from China rose 14.1% to Rs. 279.96 billion, while exports plunged 65.2% to Rs. 54.8 million, widening the trade deficit by 14.6%. China now supplies nearly 20% of Nepal’s imports but buys almost nothing in return.
Nepal’s exports to India surged 156.7% in FY 2025/26, reaching Rs. 19.45 billion, while imports grew by 7.5% to Rs. 835.4 billion. The trade deficit with India narrowed by 8.6%, though Nepal’s heavy dependence on India for both exports and imports remains a long-term challenge.
Nepal’s trade deficit narrowed by 2.5% in FY 2025/26, as imports rose 11.4% and exports nearly doubled (+95.7%). Exports to India drove the gains, while weak performance with China and other countries kept the overall trade imbalance huge. The export-to-import ratio improved to 16.7%, but Nepal’s dependence on India deepened further.
Nepal’s exports jumped 95.7% in FY 2025/26, the fastest growth in 10 years, driven by soaring shipments to India (+156.7%). Imports also grew by 11.4%, keeping the deficit large, but the export-to-import ratio improved to 16.7%. Exports to China collapsed, leaving Nepal highly reliant on India.