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NEPSE Trading Network

The NEPSE Journal

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Market commentary, data deep-dives, and trading notes from the NEPSE Trading desk.

All Articles — Page 246

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Nepal's Import 2 min read
Nepal's Import of Major Commodities Surges by 13.1% in FY 2024/25
Nepal's major imports over three fiscal years (2022/23 to 2024/25), highlighting both consistency and shifts in import patterns. Petroleum products remain the dominant import category despite a slight decline in 2024/25. A striking rise is observed in crude soybean oil imports, surging dramatically in 2024/25 after a dip the previous year—signaling either changing consumption patterns or policy shifts. Transport equipment and other machinery also show consistent growth, suggesting robust infrastructure and industrial activity. Notably, imports of edible oil, hotrolled sheets, and rice/paddy have sharply increased, indicating rising domestic demand. Conversely, gold imports have declined significantly, possibly due to regulatory changes or subdued consumer interest. Overall, the heatmap captures a broadening import base with rising volumes across industrial, agricultural, and consumer goods, pointing to a growing and diversifying economy.
Sandeep Chaudhary9 Jul, 2025
Export to China2 min read
Nepal's Export to China Grows by 3%, Driven by Woolen Carpets and Agarbatti, Despite Noodle Collapse
In the first eleven months of FY 2024/25, Nepal's exports to China showed a mixed performance across major commodities. Woolen carpets emerged as the top export item, witnessing a sharp increase from Rs. 383 million to Rs. 706.3 million — an 84.4% rise. Pashmina and agarbatti also performed well, with increases of 44.8% and 21% respectively. In contrast, noodle exports suffered a drastic fall of 85%, dropping from Rs. 149.8 million to Rs. 22.5 million. Similarly, handicrafts (metal and wooden) and rudrakshya saw declines of 21.4% and 26.3%. The export of readymade garments and leather goods also dropped. Overall, while certain traditional and artisanal goods gained traction in the Chinese market, others, particularly processed foods and crafts, struggled to maintain their momentum.
Sandeep Chaudhary9 Jul, 2025
Export India2 min read
Nepal’s Export to India Surges Sharply in 2024/25 Despite Past Declines
In the first eleven months of fiscal year 2024/25, Nepal’s exports to India saw a remarkable shift, driven heavily by a dramatic surge in Soyabean Oil, which alone contributed nearly 79% of the selected commodity exports. The export of Soyabean Oil skyrocketed by over 10,000%, becoming the single biggest contributor to Nepal's trade surge with India. Other significant gainers included Plastic Utensils (up by 371%), Shoes and Sandals (53%), Jute Goods – Hessian (41%), and Polyster Yarn (33.6%), reflecting broader strength across both industrial and consumer goods sectors. On the flip side, several key commodities witnessed steep declines. Wire exports dropped by 81.8%, Palm Oil fell by 68.4%, and Ginger by 64.9%, pointing to weaknesses in agri-based and industrial exports. Notably, Toothpaste maintained its previous year’s export level, indicating stability in select FMCG categories. This overall trend showcases a sharp recovery and concentration in a few high-performing commodities, while traditional export items remained volatile. The data suggests a need for Nepal to diversify and strengthen underperforming sectors to maintain a sustainable trade balance with India.
Sandeep Chaudhary9 Jul, 2025
Export2 min read
Nepal’s Export Sees Remarkable Growth in FY 2024/25 with Soyabean Oil
Nepal’s export composition over the past three fiscal years. Most notably, Soyabean Oil has emerged as a dominant export item, surging from under Rs. 1 billion in 2023/24 to over Rs. 93.5 billion in 2024/25, reshaping the export landscape. Other commodities such as Polyester Yarn & Thread, Jute Goods, Tea, Shoes and Sandals, and Rosin have shown consistent growth, reflecting diversification in industrial and semi-processed goods. Conversely, traditional export leaders like Palm Oil, Readymade Garments, and Zinc Sheets have seen sharp declines, indicating changing global demand or policy impacts. Overall, the export pattern highlights Nepal’s shifting strengths toward agro-industrial and synthetic products, while still maintaining a foothold in heritage goods like Woolen Carpets and Pashmina.
Sandeep Chaudhary9 Jul, 2025
Foreign Trade2 min read
Nepal's Foreign Trade Surges by 18.8% Despite Persistent Trade Deficit
In the first eleven months of fiscal year 2024/25, Nepal’s foreign trade activities saw a robust expansion, with total trade reaching Rs. 1.89 trillion—an 18.8% rise from the same period of the previous year. Exports soared by 77.8% to Rs. 247.57 billion, largely due to a 112.6% surge in shipments to India. Imports also increased, albeit at a slower pace of 13.1%, totaling Rs. 1.64 trillion. Despite the significant export growth, Nepal’s trade balance remained negative at Rs. -1.39 trillion, though it showed a 6.3% improvement over the prior year. The heatmap and comparative charts reveal a clear expansion in trade volume across all segments, with notable gains in trade with China and other countries as well. This growth, while encouraging, continues to reflect Nepal’s heavy reliance on imports, underscoring the need for deeper export diversification and domestic industrial strengthening.
Sandeep Chaudhary9 Jul, 2025
Inflation1 min read
Consumer Price Inflation Trends: Nepal-India Gap Narrows in FY 2024/25
In fiscal year 2024/25, consumer price inflation in Nepal has shown a declining trend, averaging 4.24% up to mid-June, compared to India’s 4.33%. The gap between the two countries has significantly narrowed, with Nepal even recording lower inflation than India in months like September and October. The chart highlights that while India's inflation exhibited moderate volatility across months, Nepal maintained a more consistent downward trajectory. This convergence in inflation rates reflects a relative stabilization in Nepal’s price environment and indicates improved control over domestic inflationary pressures amid global economic fluctuations.
Sandeep Chaudhary9 Jul, 2025
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Top2 min read
Sectoral Rotation in NEPSE Bull Markets and What It Suggests About the Current Bull Run
Sectoral Rotation in NEPSE Bull Markets and What It Suggests About the Current Bull Run Nepal's stock market (NEPSE) has historically shown cyclical behavior, with every bull run carrying distinct sectoral characteristics. Using past data patterns, we can break down the key trends and derive insights into how the current market momentum might unfold.
Dipesh Ghimire9 Jul, 2025
GDP2 min read
Public Finance Indicators Reflect Mixed Fiscal Trends in Nepal
The summary of Nepal's public finance indicators reveals notable fiscal shifts over the past five years. The Revenue to GDP ratio declined from a high of 22.4% to 19.0%, indicating reduced government income generation relative to economic output. Similarly, Recurrent Expenditure to GDP decreased from 20.2% to 16.7%, reflecting either improved spending efficiency or restrained budgetary allocations. However, Capital Expenditure to GDP also declined sharply from 5.3% to 3.4%, suggesting a slowdown in developmental and infrastructure investments. On the debt side, Domestic Debt to GDP rose from 15.8% to a peak of 21.0%, settling slightly lower at 20.7%, while External Debt to GDP climbed consistently, reaching 22.0%. Overall, the data highlights increasing reliance on debt financing and declining investment in capital formation, raising concerns about fiscal sustainability and long-term economic growth.
Sandeep Chaudhary8 Jul, 2025
Public finance1 min read
Public Debt Dynamics in Nepal: Domestic and External Liabilities Continue to Rise
Nepal’s public debt has steadily increased over the past six fiscal years, with both domestic and external borrowings rising significantly. Domestic debt rose from Rs. 613.2 billion in 2019/20 to Rs. 1268.6 billion in 2024/25, showing a consistent upward trend. Similarly, external debt climbed from Rs. 819.7 billion to Rs. 1253.2 billion over the same period, though it dipped slightly in mid-2023/24 before rebounding. This growth highlights the government’s reliance on debt financing to support development projects and budgetary needs. The data signals a growing fiscal burden and the need for strategic debt management to ensure long-term sustainability.
Sandeep Chaudhary8 Jul, 2025
public finance1 min read
Public Finance Trends Show Fiscal Recovery with Moderate Revenue Growth
The summary of Nepal's public finance data reveals a gradually improving fiscal environment. Revenue growth, after facing a sharp decline of -9.3% in one fiscal year, has steadily rebounded to 7.1%, then 9.8%, and most recently 10.5%. This upward trend suggests strengthened tax collection and economic recovery. On the expenditure side, growth remained controlled, fluctuating between minor contractions and moderate increases, ending with an 8.6% rise. The gap between revenue and expenditure growth has narrowed in recent years, indicating more balanced fiscal management and reduced budgetary stress. Overall, the government appears to be maintaining cautious spending while steadily boosting revenues
Sandeep Chaudhary8 Jul, 2025

NEPSEtrading

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All Articles — Page 246

Nepal's Import of Major Commodities Surges by 13.1% in FY 2024/25

Nepal's Export to China Grows by 3%, Driven by Woolen Carpets and Agarbatti, Despite Noodle Collapse

Nepal’s Export to India Surges Sharply in 2024/25 Despite Past Declines

Nepal’s Export Sees Remarkable Growth in FY 2024/25 with Soyabean Oil

Nepal's Foreign Trade Surges by 18.8% Despite Persistent Trade Deficit

Consumer Price Inflation Trends: Nepal-India Gap Narrows in FY 2024/25

Sectoral Rotation in NEPSE Bull Markets and What It Suggests About the Current Bull Run

Public Finance Indicators Reflect Mixed Fiscal Trends in Nepal

Public Debt Dynamics in Nepal: Domestic and External Liabilities Continue to Rise

Public Finance Trends Show Fiscal Recovery with Moderate Revenue Growth

NEPSEtrading

Primary issues

Income & debt

Live market

Read & learn

NEPSE Trading Network

Insights & Analysis

All Articles — Page 246

Nepal's Import of Major Commodities Surges by 13.1% in FY 2024/25

Nepal's Export to China Grows by 3%, Driven by Woolen Carpets and Agarbatti, Despite Noodle Collapse

Nepal’s Export to India Surges Sharply in 2024/25 Despite Past Declines

Nepal’s Export Sees Remarkable Growth in FY 2024/25 with Soyabean Oil

Nepal's Foreign Trade Surges by 18.8% Despite Persistent Trade Deficit

Consumer Price Inflation Trends: Nepal-India Gap Narrows in FY 2024/25

Sectoral Rotation in NEPSE Bull Markets and What It Suggests About the Current Bull Run

Public Finance Indicators Reflect Mixed Fiscal Trends in Nepal

Public Debt Dynamics in Nepal: Domestic and External Liabilities Continue to Rise

Public Finance Trends Show Fiscal Recovery with Moderate Revenue Growth