Gross National Income in Nepal: Rising or Flattening in 2082/83?

Nepal’s Gross National Income (GNI) has experienced both strong growth and periods of moderation over the last five years. GNI, which measures the total income earned by residents including net income from abroad such as remittances, expanded significantly by 14.4% in FY 2021/22, reflecting robust remittance inflows and post-COVID recovery momentum. However, since then, the pace has flattened. Growth slowed to 8.5% in FY 2022/23, further declined to 6.9% in FY 2023/24, and is projected at 6.7% in FY 2024/25. This clear trend indicates that while GNI continues to rise in absolute terms, the rate of growth is flattening, suggesting a maturing income structure with limited acceleration compared to earlier years.

The slowdown is not due to weaker remittances, which have remained strong, rising from Rs. 961 billion in FY 2020/21 to Rs. 1,723 billion in FY 2024/25. Instead, the flattening trend reflects challenges in expanding domestic income sources, particularly from production, services, and investment. The reliance on remittances has cushioned Nepal’s external position—helping sustain household consumption and foreign exchange reserves—but it also highlights structural vulnerabilities. Without significant domestic job creation and productivity-driven growth, GNI may struggle to regain the double-digit growth rates seen earlier.

Looking forward to FY 2082/83, Nepal’s GNI is likely to continue rising in absolute numbers, but at a moderate pace of 6–7% annually. This provides stability but not the dynamism needed for rapid income transformation. The policy challenge is to move from a remittance-dependent economy toward one that generates income through domestic capital formation, industrial expansion, and export diversification. Sustaining remittance inflows is important, but long-term income growth must be anchored in stronger domestic output and value addition.