Nepal’s Export Revival: 122% Rise in Top 20 Commodities – NRB Report 2025/26

Nepal’s export sector has staged a strong comeback in the first two months of FY 2025/26, with the top 20 export commodities surging by 122% compared to the same period last year, according to the Nepal Rastra Bank (NRB) Mid-September 2025/26 Report. This impressive performance marks one of the sharpest short-term rebounds in recent years, driven largely by the exceptional growth of palm oil, jute goods, soybean oil, and several agro-industrial products.

Top 20 Commodities Powering the Export Surge

The NRB data reveals that the value of the top 20 export commodities reached Rs. 35.68 billion, up from Rs. 16.07 billion a year earlier — accounting for 75.4% of total exports during the review period. The total exports, including other goods, stood at Rs. 47.32 billion, reflecting an overall growth of 88.6% year-on-year.

The surge was mainly led by:

• Soybean Oil – Rs. 20.42 billion, 43.2% share of total exports.

• Palm Oil – Rs. 1.36 billion, up 318.4% year-on-year.

• Jute Goods – Rs. 1.61 billion, up 61.1%.

• Polyester Yarn & Thread – Rs. 2.07 billion, up 2.8%.

• Cardamom – Rs. 859.6 million, up 43.9%.

• Noodles – Rs. 452.3 million, up 45.7%.

• Herbs – Rs. 289.2 million, up 44.0%.

While these sectors registered strong growth, traditional exports like tea (-37.2%), woolen carpets (-20.7%), and zinc sheets (-77.6%) declined, reflecting structural shifts in Nepal’s export composition toward re-exports and processed industrial goods.

Macro and Trade Context

The export growth aligns with Nepal’s improving external sector health. The Balance of Payments (BOP) remained in surplus at Rs. 153.7 billion, while foreign exchange reserves reached an all-time high of Rs. 2.88 trillion (USD 20.41 billion) — enough to cover over 13 months of imports.

The current account recorded a surplus of Rs. 130.7 billion, backed by remittance inflows rising 33% to Rs. 352 billion. The overall macroeconomic environment has remained stable, with inflation easing to 1.87% and interest rates declining, creating a supportive environment for trade expansion.

Diversification and Outlook

Although the data paints a positive picture, economists caution that Nepal’s export boom remains narrowly concentrated, dominated by re-exported goods like edible oils. For long-term resilience, NRB emphasizes the need for diversification into high-value sectors, such as manufacturing, hydropower, agriculture processing, and herbal products.

Efforts to modernize customs procedures, improve logistics, and strengthen export financing are also crucial to sustain this momentum. With strong liquidity and stable macro fundamentals, Nepal now has an opportunity to convert this rebound into a sustained export revival.