
The NEPSE Journal
Market commentary, data deep-dives, and trading notes from the NEPSE Trading desk.

Nepal’s total revenue and receipts fell by 6.4% year-on-year to Rs 158.71 billion in the first two months of FY 2025/26. Tax revenue declined by 5.3%, with VAT (Rs 52.14B) and customs (Rs 35.39B) showing growth, while income tax (-8.5%) and non-tax revenue (-66.3%) dropped sharply. Analysts urge fiscal reforms and diversification to restore revenue momentum.

In FY 2025/26 (two months), VAT led Nepal’s revenue with a 33% share, followed by customs (22%), excise (18%), and income tax (21%). Non-tax revenue dropped drastically by 66.3%, reducing its contribution to 4.5%. Total revenue reached Rs 157.53B, down 5.3% year-on-year. Analysts highlight Nepal’s rising dependence on indirect taxes and urge diversification to strengthen fiscal resilience.

Nepal’s excise duty surged 14.4% to Rs 28.95 billion in the first two months of FY 2025/26, supporting total revenue amid declining income tax (-8.5%) and non-tax revenue (-66.3%). While VAT (Rs 52.14B) and customs (Rs 35.39B) also rose, total government revenue fell by 5.3% to Rs 157.53 billion. Economists credit stronger consumption and compliance but warn of structural dependence on indirect taxes.

In the first two months of FY 2025/26, VAT (Rs 52.14B, +3.9%) and customs (Rs 35.39B, +7.5%) collections increased, while income tax (-8.5%) and non-tax revenue (-66.3%) declined sharply. Total revenue reached Rs 157.53B, down 5.3% year-on-year. Economists credit consumption recovery for higher indirect taxes but warn that falling income and non-tax revenues pose risks to fiscal stability.

In the first two months of FY 2025/26, Nepal’s provincial governments achieved a Rs 21.03 billion surplus, and local governments improved their balance by Rs 36.49 billion, according to NRB. This combined Rs 57 billion fiscal cushion helped offset part of the federal deficit. Despite healthy liquidity, analysts urge stronger capital spending to ensure that fiscal surpluses translate into real development outcomes.