The NEPSE Journal
Insights & Analysis
Market commentary, data deep-dives, and trading notes from the NEPSE Trading desk.
All Articles — Page 231
2887 posts
#NepalEconomy #PublicDebt #Deb2 min readHow Rising Debt/GDP Ratio Shapes Nepal’s Economic Future
Nepal’s debt-to-GDP ratio has climbed to 43–44% in FY 2024/25, reflecting growing reliance on borrowing to finance fiscal gaps. While still manageable, rising debt raises concerns about fiscal sustainability, external vulnerability, and weak capital spending. Nepal’s future depends on channeling debt into high-return projects; otherwise, it risks falling into a debt-dependence cycle.
Sandeep Chaudhary
#NepalEconomy #RecurrentExpend2 min readRecurrent Expenditure Dominates Budget – Long-Term Risks Ahead
Recurrent expenditure in Nepal accounts for over 16% of GDP, far outweighing capital spending at just 3.6% of GDP. While it sustains government operations, this imbalance poses long-term risks to fiscal sustainability, growth, and job creation. Without reforms to curb recurrent costs and prioritize capital investment, Nepal risks falling into a low-growth, high-debt trap.
Sandeep Chaudhary
#NepalEconomy #PublicDebt #Dom1 min readDomestic vs External Debt: Which Burden Is Heavier for Nepal?
Nepal’s public debt is split between domestic debt (20.8% of GDP, Rs. 1.27 trillion) and external debt (22.9% of GDP, Rs. 1.40 trillion). While domestic debt strains liquidity and crowds out private lending, external debt poses higher long-term risks due to currency and repayment vulnerabilities. The heavier burden lies with external debt, but both require careful management and stronger fiscal discipline to remain sustainable.
Sandeep Chaudhary
#NepalEconomy #CapitalExpendit1 min readCapital Expenditure Still Below 4% of GDP – Why So Low?
Nepal’s capital expenditure remains below 4% of GDP (3.6% in FY 2024/25), largely due to bureaucratic delays, governance inefficiencies, and crowding out from recurrent costs. This undermines infrastructure development, job creation, and long-term growth. Unless project management and fiscal priorities improve, Nepal’s development spending will remain inadequate to support structural transformation.
Sandeep Chaudhary- Advertisement
#NepalEconomy #RevenueGDP #Fis1 min readRevenue to GDP Ratio Below 20% – Challenges for Fiscal Space
Nepal’s revenue-to-GDP ratio has dropped to 19.6% in FY 2024/25, below the 20% threshold needed for fiscal flexibility. Heavy reliance on trade taxes and weak domestic tax mobilization are limiting fiscal space, leaving little room for capital spending and forcing reliance on debt. Without structural reforms to diversify revenue, fiscal sustainability risks will deepen.
Sandeep Chaudhary
#NepalEconomy #ExternalDebt #F1 min readExternal Debt Nears Rs. 1.4 Trillion: Rising Dependency on Loans
Nepal’s external debt has risen to Rs. 1.40 trillion (22.9% of GDP), reflecting growing reliance on foreign loans to finance fiscal and development needs. While manageable for now, low efficiency in capital spending and reliance on remittance-driven reserves raise concerns about sustainability. Without channeling loans into high-return projects, Nepal risks falling into a cycle of rising debt dependency.
Sandeep Chaudhary
#NepalEconomy #DomesticDebt #F1 min readDomestic Debt Tops Rs. 1.2 Trillion – Fiscal Sustainability Concerns
Nepal’s domestic debt has crossed Rs. 1.2 trillion, reaching 20.8% of GDP. While manageable for now, rising borrowing combined with weak revenue growth poses risks to fiscal sustainability. Heavy reliance on domestic debt could crowd out private investment unless borrowing is channeled into productive, growth-enhancing projects.
Sandeep Chaudhary
#NepalEconomy #PublicFinance #2 min readGovernment Expenditure Rises by 15%: Is It Productive Spending?
Nepal’s government expenditure rose by 15.2% in early FY 2082/83, but most of it is absorbed by recurrent costs rather than productive capital investment. With capital expenditure stuck at just 3.6% of GDP, rising spending risks adding to fiscal pressure without significantly boosting growth. To be productive, Nepal must improve efficiency, governance, and channel funds into infrastructure and high-return projects.
Sandeep Chaudhary
