Starting the Week in the Red
The first trading session of April 2026 — April 1 — delivered a severe blow to NEPSE investors, with the index shedding 74.73 points (-2.62%) to close at 2,776.36. As the week continues, the key question is whether this was an isolated shock or the beginning of a deeper correction. Here is a comprehensive preview of what lies ahead in the trading week of April 2-5, 2026.
The Trigger: Finance Minister Policy Uncertainty
The catalyst for April 1's crash was investor anxiety over Finance Minister capital market policy comments. The week ahead hinges critically on one thing: whether the Ministry provides clarification. A reassuring statement could trigger a sharp recovery rally. Continued silence or further restrictive signals could extend the selloff.
Investors should monitor official government communications, especially any press conferences or Finance Ministry circulars, as the primary macro driver for the week.
Technical Picture for the Week
NEPSE enters the week at 2,776.36 with the following technical context:
- Weekly trend: Bearish — the index has now broken below the 2,800 psychological support
- 200-day MA: Approximately 2,740-2,750 — this is the critical medium-term support zone
- Weekly RSI: Declining — approaching oversold territory, which historically precedes short-term bounces in NEPSE
- Resistance: 2,800 (broken support becomes resistance), then 2,850
Key Events to Watch This Week
- Finance Ministry statement: The most important event — any policy clarity will dominate market direction
- NRB monetary policy signals: Any hint of interest rate direction from Nepal Rastra Bank will affect banking sector sentiment
- Circuit stock follow-through: RSML, BJHL, SKHL, SKHEL, RLEL, HFIN hit back-to-back circuits on April 1 — their behaviour this week will reveal whether these were genuine breakouts or speculative spikes
- Quarterly earnings season: Q3 FY 2025/26 results from commercial banks may provide fundamental anchors for the sector
Sector Outlook for the Week
Commercial Banks: Recovery dependent on policy clarity. Watch for buying at 2-3% below April 1 close. Quality banks remain fundamentally sound.
Hydropower: Medium-term story intact. Weekly support near sector index lows. AKJCL and Ngadi's high turnover on April 1 suggest institutional interest.
Development Banks & Finance: Most vulnerable to continued selling — highest sensitivity to policy and rate risk. Avoid adding exposure until stabilisation confirmed.
Manufacturing: Shivam Cement's turnover presence suggests defensive rotation — investors moving toward real-economy stocks may support the sector.
Investor Strategy for the Week
- Existing holders: Avoid panic-selling quality positions. Review stop-losses if any, but don't exit fundamentally sound stocks on sentiment alone.
- Cash holders: Patience is the best tool. Deploy in tranches — 25% if NEPSE holds 2,750, another 25% if it holds 2,725. Do not rush.
- Active traders: Range-trade between 2,750 support and 2,800 resistance. Volume confirmation required before any breakout trade.
Weekly Outlook Summary
The week of April 2-5 will be defined by the government's response to market fear. If policymakers provide reassurance, expect a 1-2% weekly recovery. If policy uncertainty persists, NEPSE may test the 2,725-2,750 zone. The good news: historically, NEPSE policy-fear selloffs have been followed by meaningful recoveries once clarity emerges. Patience and disciplined position sizing are the tools of the week.