Nepal Economic Dashboard Explained (8M 2025/26)
Think of Nepal's economy as a dashboard with multiple gauges. Here's what each gauge reads as of mid-March 2026.
Growth Gauge: GREEN
GDP at 3.99% — the best in recent years. Economy is expanding, driven by services, remittance consumption, and tourism recovery.
Inflation Gauge: YELLOW → ORANGE
CPI at 3.62% and rising. Was green (1.11%) in November but has turned amber. If it crosses 4-5%, it moves to red. NRB has responded with rate hikes.
External Sector Gauge: GREEN
Current account surplus Rs. 552,848M. Remittances Rs. 1.45T. Import cover 11-12 months. The external sector is the strongest gauge on the dashboard.
Currency Gauge: YELLOW
NPR at 147.94/USD — all-time weak. Depreciation benefits remittances but hurts importers and consumers. Not critical yet but trending wrong direction.
Banking Gauge: GREEN
Deposits +6.52%, credit +5.72%, interbank rate stable at 3%. No liquidity stress. System is healthy.
Market Gauge: YELLOW
NEPSE at 2,820 (+3.07%) looks okay but turnover crashed -69%. Low liquidity and rising rates are headwinds. Real return is negative (-0.55% after inflation).
Fiscal Gauge: ORANGE
Revenue growth 3.04% lags GDP 3.99%. Income tax declining. Domestic debt growing faster than revenue. Needs attention.
Agriculture Gauge: RED
Only major sector with declining credit (-1.99%). Farming services -6.11%. Rural economy showing stress.
Overall Dashboard: YELLOW-GREEN
Nepal's economy is in reasonable shape with strong external buffers, but domestic pressures (inflation, fiscal, agriculture) are flashing warning signals.