Is NEPSE breaking out or correcting? Index at 2833.03 (-33.83 pts). 124/346 MACD above zero, breadth 0.95 A/D ratio. Breakout and correction signals analyzed.
Breakout or Correction? — 2026-04-16
NEPSE closed at 2833.03, down -33.83 points (-1.18%) from the previous close of 2866.87. The index traded between 2822.68 (low) and 2869.51 (high), opening at 2868.87.
Is today's NEPSE action a sign of breakout momentum or a correction? Let's analyze the evidence.
Breakout Signals
- ❌ More losers (20) than gainers (19) — bearish breadth
- ✅ 11/11 MACD above zero — bullish momentum
- ✅ More bullish (3) than bearish (0) MACD crosses
- ⚠️ Top gainer volume is thin — move may not sustain
Correction Signals
- ✅ Limited bearish divergence
- ✅ 10 expanding — momentum intact
- ⚠️ More stocks in declining sector (HYDROPOWER: 12) than gaining (HYDROPOWER: 7)
Key Levels
- RLEL: Support Rs. 1055, Resistance Rs. 1138.6
- SKHEL: Support Rs. 999.9, Resistance Rs. 1078.3
- SIPD: Support Rs. 372.5, Resistance Rs. 416
Verdict
NEUTRAL — mixed signals suggest consolidation rather than a clear directional move.