नयाँ साताको सुरुवात : बजारमा आशाHopes Return to the Market, But Investors Remain Cautious
नयाँ साताको पहिलो कारोबार दिन सुरु हुँदै गर्दा सेयर बजारमा फेरि एकपटक आशा र सावधानी दुवै एकसाथ देखिन थालेका छन् । केही सातादेखि लगातार दबाबमा देखिएको बजारले गत साताको अन्त्यतिर तल्लो क्षेत्रबाट समर्थन लिएपछि लगानीकर्ताको मनोविज्ञानमा सामान्य परिवर्तन देखिएको हो ।
शुक्रबार बजार बन्द हुँदै गर्दा ब्रोकर कार्यालयहरूको वातावरण पनि केही फरक देखिन्थ्यो । केही दिनअघिसम्म “अब बजार अझै तल जान सक्छ”, “करेक्सन सकिएको छैन” भन्ने चर्चा बढी सुनिन्थ्यो । तर अहिले भने लगानीकर्ताबीच अर्को खालको संवाद सुरु हुन थालेको छ ।
कतिपय लगानीकर्ता होटल समूहको गतिविधिबारे चर्चा गरिरहेका थिए भने केहीले जलविद्युत् कम्पनीहरूमा देखिएको खरिद चापलाई सकारात्मक संकेतका रूपमा लिन थालेका छन् । धेरै लगानीकर्ता अझै सतर्क भए पनि बजारप्रतिको डर पहिलेको तुलनामा केही कम भएको अनुभूति गर्न थालेका छन् ।
गत साता नेप्से परिसूचक ६.९३ अंकले बढेर २७४५.६५ विन्दुमा बन्द भएको थियो । अंकका हिसाबले यो वृद्धि धेरै ठूलो होइन । तर लामो समय दबाबमा रहेको बजारले तल्लो क्षेत्रबाट समर्थन खोज्दै हरियो बन्द हुनु आफैँमा मनोवैज्ञानिक रूपमा महत्त्वपूर्ण मानिएको छ ।
पाँच कारोबार दिन खुलेको बजारमा तीन दिन सुधार देखिएको थियो भने दुई दिन सामान्य करेक्सन आएको थियो । यसले बजार पूर्ण रूपमा एकतर्फी उकालोमा नलागे पनि खरिदकर्ता अझै बजारमा सक्रिय रहेको संकेत दिएको छ ।
विशेषगरी साताको अन्तिम कारोबार दिन बनेको बुलिस क्याण्डललाई धेरै विश्लेषकहरूले सकारात्मक रूपमा हेरेका छन् । दिनभर बजार उतारचढावमा रहे पनि अन्तिम समयमा खरिदकर्ता केही बलियो देखिनुले बजारले तल्लो क्षेत्रलाई ‘सपोर्ट जोन’ बनाउन खोजिरहेको अनुमान गरिएको छ ।
तर बजारको अर्को पाटो अझै कमजोर देखिन्छ । कारोबार रकममा उल्लेख्य सुधार आउन सकेको छैन । गत साता दैनिक औसत कारोबार रकम ३ अर्ब ४२ करोड रुपैयाँमा सीमित भएको थियो । यसले बजारमा अझै ठूलो स्तरको नयाँ पैसा प्रवेश गरिसकेको अवस्था नरहेको देखाएको छ ।
विश्लेषकहरूका अनुसार बजारको वास्तविक शक्ति भोल्युमले नै देखाउँछ । यदि बजार साँच्चै नयाँ यात्रामा निस्किएको हो भने कारोबार रकम पनि विस्तारै बढ्नुपर्ने हुन्छ । अहिले भने बजारमा सीमित क्षेत्र र केही स्टकमा मात्रै पैसा केन्द्रित भइरहेको देखिन्छ ।
यद्यपि यसलाई पूर्ण रूपमा नकारात्मक रूपमा मात्रै पनि हेरिएको छैन । लामो समय दबाबमा रहेको बजार सामान्यतया एकैपटक सबै क्षेत्रमा बलियो बन्न सक्दैन । सुरुमा केही सेक्टर सक्रिय हुन्छन्, त्यसपछि विस्तारै अन्य क्षेत्रमा पनि ‘रोटेसन’ सुरु हुने गर्छ । अहिले नेप्से त्यही प्रारम्भिक चरणमा रहेको अनुमान गरिएको छ ।
पछिल्ला दिनमा होटल तथा पर्यटन समूहले बजारलाई केही ऊर्जा दिएको देखिएको छ । पर्यटन क्षेत्र आगामी महिनामा अझ सक्रिय हुन सक्ने अपेक्षा, होटल व्यवसाय विस्तार र केही कम्पनीमा बढ्दो चासोका कारण यो समूहमा लगानीकर्ता आकर्षित भएका छन् ।
जलविद्युत् क्षेत्रमा पनि चयनात्मक रूपमा सुधार देखिएको छ । सबै कम्पनी बलियो भएको अवस्था भने छैन । तर केही कम्पनीमा लगातार खरिद चाप बढ्दै जानुले लगानीकर्ता फेरि जोखिम लिन तयार हुन थालेको संकेत दिएको छ ।
झापा इनर्जीको शेयर मूल्यमा आएको तीव्र सुधार र त्रिशुली जलविद्युत् कम्पनीमा देखिएको सक्रियताले बजारमा छोटो अवधिको सकारात्मक मनोविज्ञान निर्माण गर्न मद्दत गरेको विश्लेषण गरिएको छ ।
तर बजारको वास्तविक अवस्था अझै पूर्ण रूपमा सहज भइसकेको छैन । अहिले पनि नेप्सेमा नियमित कारोबार हुने अधिकांश कम्पनीको मूल्य उनीहरूको १८० दिनको औसत मूल्यभन्दा तल नै रहेको छ । यसको अर्थ धेरै लगानीकर्ता अझै घाटाबाट पूर्ण रूपमा बाहिर निस्किन सकेका छैनन् ।
विशेषगरी बैंक, बिमा र लघुवित्त क्षेत्रमा लगानी गरेका धेरै लगानीकर्ताले अझै उल्लेख्य राहत महसुस गर्न सकेका छैनन् । लघुवित्त क्षेत्र अहिले पनि दबाबमा रहेको समूहका रूपमा देखिएको छ । जीवन बिमा र लगानी समूहमा पनि कमजोरी कायम छ ।
यद्यपि पछिल्ला दिनमा बिक्री चाप केही घट्न थालेको संकेत देखिएको छ । यसले लगानीकर्ताहरू आत्तिएर बेच्ने अवस्थाबाट विस्तारै बाहिर निस्किन थालेको बुझाइ विश्लेषकहरूको छ ।
अहिले बजारमा पूर्ण उत्साह छैन । तर पूर्ण निराशा पनि बाँकी छैन । यही कारण अहिलेको बजारलाई धेरैले “सावधानीभित्रको आशा” को अवस्थामा रहेको बताइरहेका छन् ।
यसबीच बजारसँगै अर्को संवेदनशील विषय अझै जोडिएको छ — मार्जिन कल । धेरै कम्पनीको मूल्य १८० दिनको औसतभन्दा तल झरेकाले केही लगानीकर्तामाथि धितो थप्ने दबाब अझै कायम छ । विशेषगरी ऋण लिएर लगानी गरेका लगानीकर्ताका लागि अहिलेको अवस्था अझै संवेदनशील नै मानिएको छ ।
तर यदि बजारले २७०० माथि स्थिरता कायम राख्दै विस्तारै सुधार देखाउन सक्यो भने मार्जिन कलको दबाब पनि क्रमशः कम हुन सक्ने अनुमान गरिएको छ ।
प्राविधिक रूपमा हेर्दा अहिले २७००–२७२० विन्दुको क्षेत्र महत्वपूर्ण सपोर्टको रूपमा देखिएको छ । बजारले पछिल्ला केही कारोबार दिन यही क्षेत्रबाट समर्थन लिएर माथि फर्किएको छ ।
अब बजारको नजर २७८८ देखि २८७९ विन्दुको प्रतिरोध क्षेत्रमा केन्द्रित भएको छ । यदि बजारले यो क्षेत्र बलियो कारोबार रकमसहित पार गर्न सक्यो भने नेप्से २९०० माथि पुग्ने सम्भावना बलियो बन्न सक्ने विश्लेषकहरू बताउँछन् ।
तर त्यसका लागि बजारलाई एउटा कुरा अत्यन्त आवश्यक देखिएको छ — विश्वास ।
अहिले लगानीकर्ताहरू विस्तारै बजारलाई फेरि विश्वास गर्न खोजिरहेका छन् । केही समयअघि जस्तो चरम निराशा अहिले देखिँदैन । धेरै लगानीकर्ताले फेरि चार्ट हेर्न थालेका छन्, चयनात्मक रूपमा बजारमा प्रवेश गर्न थालेका छन् ।
यद्यपि सावधानी अझै आवश्यक रहेको विश्लेषकहरू बताउँछन् । बजारले पूर्ण रूपमा दिशा स्पष्ट गरिसकेको छैन । उतारचढाव अझै जारी रहन सक्छ ।
तर नयाँ साताको सुरुवातसँगै बजारले एउटा संकेत भने स्पष्ट रूपमा दिएको देखिन्छ —
नेप्से अहिले केवल टिक्न मात्रै खोजिरहेको छैन, उसले फेरि उठ्ने प्रयास पनि सुरु गरेको छ ।
Kathmandu — As trading opens for the first session of the new week, Nepal’s stock market is beginning to show signs of life again. After weeks of pressure and uncertainty, the recent rebound from lower levels has slightly changed investor sentiment, creating a cautious sense of optimism inside the market.
By the time trading closed last Friday, the atmosphere inside brokerage offices no longer felt as heavy as it had just a few weeks ago. Until recently, conversations were dominated by fears that the market could fall even further and that the correction phase was still unfinished. This time, however, the tone appeared somewhat different.
Some investors were discussing renewed momentum in hotel stocks, while others pointed to increasing buying pressure in selected hydropower companies as an encouraging signal. Although many traders remain careful, the deep pessimism that previously dominated the market seems to be gradually fading.
The Nepal Stock Exchange (NEPSE) index closed last week at 2745.65 points, gaining 6.93 points overall. Numerically, the increase may appear modest, but in the context of recent market sentiment, many analysts believe the rise carries greater psychological importance than the numbers alone suggest.
For several weeks, the market had remained under sustained pressure. Trading volumes were shrinking, confidence was weakening, and many investors preferred to stay in cash rather than take new positions. In such an environment, the market’s ability to hold support and close in positive territory has been interpreted as an early sign of stabilization.
The market traded for five sessions during the week, finishing higher on three days while declining on two. This pattern suggests that although the market has not yet entered a strong bullish trend, buyers are still actively defending lower levels.
Particular attention has been given to the bullish candlestick formed during Friday’s session. Despite volatility throughout the day, buyers appeared stronger toward the closing hours, leading analysts to believe the market may be attempting to establish a short-term support base.
However, one major weakness remains clearly visible — trading volume.
Average daily turnover last week stood at only around NPR 3.42 billion, significantly below previous stronger phases of the market. Analysts say this indicates that large-scale conviction money has not yet fully returned to the market.
According to market observers, volume is ultimately what confirms the strength of any sustainable rally. If the market is truly preparing for a larger upward move, turnover must gradually improve alongside price action. At present, money flow appears selective rather than broad-based, with capital concentrated in only a few sectors and individual stocks.
Still, analysts do not see this entirely as a negative development.
After a prolonged correction, markets rarely recover uniformly across all sectors at once. Usually, a handful of sectors begin moving first, followed by gradual rotation into broader areas of the market. Many believe NEPSE is currently in that early transition phase.
In recent sessions, the hotel and tourism sector has emerged as one of the market’s strongest sources of momentum. Expectations of improving tourism activity in the coming months, expanding hotel business operations, and growing investor interest in selected companies have helped fuel buying pressure in the sector.
Hydropower stocks have also started to attract selective buying interest. Although the entire sector has not turned bullish, increasing accumulation in a few companies suggests that investors are slowly becoming willing to take calculated risks again.
The sharp rise in shares of Jhapa Energy and renewed momentum in Trishuli Hydropower helped strengthen short-term positive sentiment across the market.
Yet despite these improvements, the broader market picture has not fully changed.
Even now, nearly 73 percent of listed companies on NEPSE are still trading below their 180-day average prices. This means a large portion of investors remain under pressure and have not yet fully recovered their portfolio losses.
Banking, insurance, and microfinance stocks in particular continue to struggle. The microfinance sector remains one of the weakest groups in the market, while life insurance and investment companies are still facing persistent selling pressure.
Even so, analysts note that panic selling has started to ease compared to previous weeks. This indicates that investors are gradually moving away from fear-driven decisions and becoming more patient with their holdings.
At present, the market is neither fully optimistic nor fully fearful. Many analysts describe the current environment as “cautious optimism.”
Meanwhile, another important issue continues to hover over the market — margin calls.
Because many companies are still trading below their 180-day average prices, some leveraged investors continue to face pressure to add collateral. Investors who entered the market using borrowed funds remain especially vulnerable.
However, analysts believe that if the market can maintain stability above the 2700 level and continue improving gradually, margin call pressure could begin to ease over time.
From a technical perspective, the 2700–2720 range is currently viewed as an important support zone. The market has repeatedly bounced from this area during recent sessions, reinforcing its significance.
Attention is now shifting toward the resistance zone between 2788 and 2879 points. Analysts say that if NEPSE manages to break above this range with stronger trading volume, the index could potentially move beyond the 2900 level.
That would represent an upside swing of roughly 3 percent from current levels.
But for that to happen, the market needs one critical ingredient — confidence.
And slowly, that confidence appears to be returning.
The extreme pessimism that dominated investor behavior just a few weeks ago is no longer as visible. More investors are beginning to study charts again, update their watchlists, and selectively re-enter the market.
Still, analysts warn that caution remains necessary. The market has not yet fully confirmed a clear direction, and volatility could continue in the coming sessions.
Yet despite the uncertainty, the market appears to be sending one message at the beginning of this new week —
NEPSE is no longer trying only to survive.
It may now be trying to rise again.
