कारोबार रकम सुक्दै, प्राविधिक चार्टले पनि देखायो कमजोरी, तर मुख्य सपोर्ट अझै सुरक्षितIndex Falls for Second Straight Session, Investors Remain in “Wait and Watch” Mode

The Nepali stock market closed lower again on Wednesday, extending its losing streak for a second consecutive trading session. Although the decline in the benchmark index remained modest, the sharp fall in turnover and the lack of broad buying interest reflected growing uncertainty among investors. Over the past few weeks, the market has struggled to establish a clear direction, with many investors adopting a cautious “wait and watch” strategy amid mixed signals from both fundamentals and technical indicators.

The Nepal Stock Exchange (NEPSE) index declined by 4.15 points to close at 2740.25 points on Wednesday. While the numerical fall in the index was not significant, analysts say the steep drop in trading volume painted a much weaker picture underneath the surface. Daily turnover dropped sharply to around NPR 2.80 billion, compared to more than NPR 4.66 billion recorded in the previous trading session.

A total of 339 companies traded during the session, with more than 5.64 million shares changing hands through over 42,000 transactions. Despite intraday fluctuations, the market failed to recover meaningfully toward the closing hours, suggesting that investor confidence has yet to return fully.

According to market analysts, the current market structure remains trendless and indecisive. The strong optimism seen earlier in the rally appears to be fading gradually, while short-term traders have increasingly started booking profits. That behavior is now becoming visible in the declining turnover figures as well. Analysts also note that the inflow of fresh money into the market has slowed, causing trading activity to remain concentrated in only a handful of stocks.

Even in a broadly weak market, a few companies posted notable gains. Asian Hydropower emerged as the top gainer, with its share price rising by 11.42 percent. Similarly, SY Panel Nepal gained more than 4.5 percent during the session. However, most stocks closed lower, reflecting weakening buying momentum across the broader market. Analysts believe pressure has particularly increased in small- and mid-cap stocks as buyers become more selective.

On the losing side, Dhaulagiri Laghubitta Financial Institution recorded the steepest decline, falling 11.17 percent. Jhapa Energy also dropped by nearly 9.5 percent. Market observers say that many stocks which rallied aggressively in recent weeks are now facing heavy profit-booking pressure, leading to sharper corrections.

In terms of turnover, SY Panel Nepal led the market with transactions worth over NPR 277.9 million. Ridi Power Company and Sahas Urja also witnessed notable trading activity. Although the broader market remained weak, concentrated trading in a few counters suggested that stock-specific movements are still active beneath the overall sluggish market environment.

Sector-wise, 11 out of the 13 sub-indices closed in the red. The Trading sector was the only major outperformer, gaining 1.50 percent, while the Manufacturing and Processing sector posted a marginal rise. Banking, development banks, hydropower, insurance, microfinance and several other sectors remained under pressure. Analysts say this reflects a market driven more by selective activity rather than broad-based institutional buying.

Now turning to the technical analysis, Wednesday’s daily chart also failed to provide a strong bullish signal. The market closed under pressure for the second consecutive day, while rapidly declining turnover continued to reinforce the cautious sentiment among traders. Technical analysts say the market remains firmly in a “wait and watch” phase as investors hesitate to take aggressive positions.

From a candlestick perspective, Wednesday’s formation appeared to be a “bearish small-body candle,” often interpreted as a sign of weakness or indecision. Although the market initially attempted to move higher during the session, selling pressure emerged at upper levels and dragged the index back down. The upper wick on the candle indicates that supply remains strong near resistance zones. However, the absence of a large lower wick also suggests that panic selling has not yet entered the market.

The broader chart structure still shows the market forming a “Lower High” pattern. The index failed to revisit its previous peak and once again lost momentum before reaching higher resistance levels. Analysts identify the 2879 to 2911 zone as a major resistance area. Since the market has repeatedly failed to break above that range, the short-term trend continues to remain under pressure.

Despite the recent weakness, analysts say the positive side has not completely disappeared. The primary upward trendline shown on the chart has not yet been decisively broken. The market is still trading above the important support zone near 2677 points, which is being viewed as a critical short-term base. If the index manages to defend this level, the possibility of another upward rebound may still remain alive.

The HH (Higher High), HL (Higher Low), and LH (Lower High) structures visible on the chart further indicate the market’s current indecisive nature. Earlier, the market had been forming higher highs and higher lows, signaling a bullish recovery trend. However, the recent emergence of lower highs suggests that buyers are gradually losing strength. Analysts believe this also indicates that large institutional money has not yet fully returned to the market.

Another important indicator on the chart is the “CHoCH” or “Change of Character” signal, which reflects repeated shifts in market momentum. The earlier bullish structure now appears to be weakening gradually. Falling turnover alongside repeated reversals has strengthened the argument that market confidence remains fragile.

For the coming sessions, analysts view 2677 points as the most critical support level. If the market falls below this zone, selling pressure could intensify toward 2608 points and potentially even 2568 points. On the upside, the index needs a strong close above 2788 points to regain bullish momentum. Only then could the market attempt another test of the 2879–2911 resistance region.

Overall, both the market behavior and the technical chart suggest that the market is not yet entering a major collapse, but rather moving through a phase of weakening consolidation. Shrinking turnover, repeated selling pressure near upper levels, and the formation of lower highs indicate caution in the short term. However, as long as the major support zones remain intact, analysts believe it may still be premature to conclude that the broader market trend has fully turned negative.