नेपालको शेयर बजारमा गिरावट जारी, अर्को साता महत्वपूर्ण हुने विश्लेषणNepal Stock Market: A Week of Decline, Key Decisions Await Next Week
नेपालको शेयर बजारले यस हप्ता निरन्तर ओरालो यात्रा गरेको छ। बिहीबार नेप्से सूचक १५.९३ अंकले घटेर २७३४.९३ अंक मा झरेको छ। बजारले २७८० अंकको प्रमुख प्रतिरोध स्तर तोड्न नसक्दा लगानीकर्ताहरूमा अनिश्चितता कायमै छ। केही समूहहरूमा सुधार देखिए पनि अधिकांशले गिरावट बेहोरेका छन्।
यस लेखमा हप्ताभरि भएको बजार गतिविधि, समूहगत प्रदर्शन, प्रमुख वृद्धि र गिरावट भएका स्टक, प्राविधिक विश्लेषण, र भविष्यको सम्भावनाहरूको विश्लेषण गरिएको छ।
बजारको स्थिति
साताको सुरु आइतबार नेप्से सूचक ९.९९ अंकले घट्यो। सोमबार सूचकले १९.९७ अंकको वृद्धि गरेको थियो, जुन मंगलबार १७.८० अंक थपिएर जारी रह्यो। तर, बुधबार र बिहीबार सूचकले क्रमशः २४.९७ र १५.९३ अंकको गिरावट बेहोरेको छ।
कारोबार रकम ८ अर्बदेखि १० अर्ब को दायरामा रहे पनि सूचकको निरन्तर गिरावटले बजारमा कमजोर मनोबल झल्काएको छ।
दिन | कारोबार रकम (अर्ब रुपैयाँ) | सूचक परिवर्तन | समापन सूचक |
|---|---|---|---|
आइतबार | ८.८३ | -९.९९ | २७६५.९३ |
सोमबार | १०.५४ | +१९.९७ | २७८५.९० |
मंगलबार | ८.५२ | +१७.८० | २८०३.७० |
बुधबार | ९.१३ | -२४.९७ | २७७८.७३ |
बिहीबार | ८.३६ | -१५.९३ | २७३४.९३ |
सूचकले २७८० को प्रतिरोध स्तर पार गर्न नसक्नु बजारको कमजोरीको संकेत हो। तर, समूहगत प्रदर्शनले केही क्षेत्रहरूमा सुधार देखाएको छ।
समूहगत प्रदर्शन
यो हप्ताको समूहगत विश्लेषणमा व्यापार समूह सबैभन्दा राम्रो प्रदर्शन गर्न सफल भयो, जबकि बैंकिङ समूहले सबैभन्दा ठूलो गिरावट बेहोरेको छ।
समूह | गत हप्ताको अंक | यो हप्ताको अंक | % परिवर्तन |
|---|---|---|---|
बैंकिङ | १४९२ | १४४० | -३.४८% |
विकास बैंक | ५८६१ | ५८१७ | -०.७५% |
फाइनान्स | ३६३८ | ३३६८ | -७.४२% |
हाइड्रोपावर | ३५७९ | ३६१५ | +१.००% |
माइक्रोफाइनान्स | ५१६१ | ५०५२ | -२.११% |
जीवन बीमा | १३५६७ | १३७५४ | +१.३७% |
निर्जीवन बीमा | १३१९१ | १३१०७ | -०.८५% |
होटल तथा पर्यटन | ६८९६ | ६८५२ | -०.६३% |
उत्पादन | ६८२८ | ६७३६ | -१.३४% |
लगानी | १०६.८५ | १०४.७५ | -१.९६% |
व्यापार | ४२२९ | ५०७४ | +१९.९८% |
अन्य | २०५८ | २००३ | -२.६७% |
व्यापार समूहले सबैभन्दा राम्रो प्रदर्शन गर्दै १९.९८% को वृद्धि गर्यो, जसमा विशाल बजार कम्पनीको उच्च मूल्य वृद्धिले मुख्य योगदान दिएको हो।
प्रमुख वृद्धि र गिरावट भएका स्टकहरू
यस हप्तामा केही स्टकहरूले उल्लेखनीय वृद्धि गरेका छन्। खानी खोला हाइड्रोपावर शीर्ष स्थानमा रह्यो, जसको मूल्य ४५.३६% ले बढ्यो।
कम्पनी | हालको मूल्य (रुपैयाँ) | % वृद्धि |
|---|---|---|
खानी खोला हाइड्रोपावर | ४२८ | +४५.३६% |
जोशी हाइड्रोपावर | ४७५ | +३७.८८% |
दिव्यश्वरी हाइड्रोपावर | ३३७ | +२६.२२% |
विशाल बजार | ६६३० | +२१.७६% |
मन्दाकिनी हाइड्रोपावर | ९३८ | +१८.१४% |
प्राविधिक विश्लेषण
डाउ थ्योरी अनुसार, बजारले हालसम्म हाइयर लो बनाइरहेको छ, जसले बजार अझै अपट्रेन्डमै रहेको संकेत गर्दछ। तर, कमजोर बजार स्ट्रेन्थ र प्रतिरोध स्तर पार गर्न नसक्दा लगानीकर्ताहरू सतर्क बन्नुपरेको छ।
एमएसीडी विश्लेषण:
एमएसीडी लाइनले हालसम्म कुनै स्पष्ट सिग्नल दिएको छैन। यदि सिग्नल लाइनले एमएसीडी लाइनलाई तल क्रस गर्छ भने, बजारमा थप गिरावटको सम्भावना रहेको छ।भोल्युम विश्लेषण:
कारोबार रकम स्थिर भए पनि खरिद चाप कमजोर रहनुले बजारमा लगानीकर्ताको होसियारी झल्काउँछ।
भविष्यको सम्भावना
अर्को हप्ता बजारका लागि निर्णायक हुनेछ। सूचकले २७८० अंकको प्रतिरोध स्तर तोड्न सक्ने हो भने मात्र सुधारको संकेत देखिनेछ। अन्यथा, बजारमा नयाँ गिरावट आउन सक्छ।
प्रमुख हेरिने क्षेत्रहरू:
एमएसीडी क्रसओभर: सिग्नल लाइनले एमएसीडी लाइनलाई पार गरेमा बजारमा दबाब बढ्नेछ।
ब्रोकर गतिविधि: आरएचपिएल र एनएलजी इन्स्योरेन्सजस्ता स्टकमा अपरेटरको सम्भावित गतिविधिले बजारलाई असर गर्न सक्छ।
लगानीकर्ताको मनोबल: साना-साना प्राविधिक सुधारले लगानीकर्तालाई थप उत्साहित बनाउनेछ।
यस हप्ताको बजार गतिविधिले लगानीकर्तालाई नयाँ रणनीति बनाउन बाध्य पारेको छ। प्राविधिक विश्लेषण र बजारको ट्रेन्डले सावधानी अपनाउनुपर्ने संकेत दिइरहेको छ। आगामी हप्ता बजारले कस्तो मोड लिन्छ भन्ने कुराले भविष्यको दिशा तय गर्नेछ। लगानीकर्तालाई सतर्क रहन र तथ्यांकका आधारमा निर्णय गर्न सुझाव दिइएको छ।
The Nepal Stock Exchange (NEPSE) endured another week of declining performance, with the market grappling to find stability amid resistance and sectoral fluctuations. The index closed at 2,734.93 points on Thursday, down by 15.93 points, marking the continuation of a bearish trend. While some sectors showed resilience, others struggled under selling pressure, reflecting the prevailing uncertainty in investor sentiment.
This article delves into the week's market dynamics, sectoral performance, key gainers, losers, and trading patterns, followed by a technical analysis and future outlook.
Market Overview
The week began on a cautious note as the NEPSE index dropped by 9.99 points on Sunday. Monday saw a slight recovery, with the index gaining 19.97 points, followed by a 17.80-point rise on Tuesday. However, the momentum faltered midweek as Wednesday and Thursday recorded losses of 24.97 points and 15.93 points, respectively.
Despite these fluctuations, the market turnover remained within the range of NPR 8 billion to 10 billion per day, indicating consistent trading activity despite the declining index.
Day | Turnover (NPR in Billion) | Index Change | Closing Index |
|---|---|---|---|
Sunday | 8.83 | -9.99 | 2,765.93 |
Monday | 10.54 | +19.97 | 2,785.90 |
Tuesday | 8.52 | +17.80 | 2,803.70 |
Wednesday | 9.13 | -24.97 | 2,778.73 |
Thursday | 8.36 | -15.93 | 2,734.93 |
The index's inability to breach the 2,780-point resistance level highlights the market's struggle to sustain upward momentum, even as certain sectors and stocks showed positive movement.
Sectoral Performance
The sectoral analysis reveals mixed results, with a few sectors demonstrating significant gains while others declined. The trading sector emerged as the week's top performer, driven by a substantial rally in Bishal Bazar Company. Conversely, the banking sector suffered the largest drop, highlighting the challenges faced by the financial segment.
Sector | Last Week's Points | This Week's Points | % Change |
|---|---|---|---|
Banking | 1,492 | 1,440 | -3.48% |
Development Bank | 5,861 | 5,817 | -0.75% |
Finance | 3,638 | 3,368 | -7.42% |
Hydropower | 3,579 | 3,615 | +1.00% |
Microfinance | 5,161 | 5,052 | -2.11% |
Life Insurance | 13,567 | 13,754 | +1.37% |
Non-Life Insurance | 13,191 | 13,078 | -0.85% |
Hotel and Tourism | 6,896 | 6,852 | -0.63% |
Manufacturing | 6,828 | 6,736 | -1.34% |
Investment | 106.85 | 104.75 | -1.96% |
Trading | 4,229 | 5,074 | +19.98% |
Others | 2,058 | 2,003 | -2.67% |
Interpretation of Sectoral Movements
Trading Sector:
The trading sector posted a remarkable growth of nearly 20%, driven largely by the impressive performance of Bishal Bazar Company, whose price surged by 21.76%. The sector, dominated by two companies (Bishal Bazar and Salt Trading Corporation), benefited from strong capital gains in Bishal Bazar, which has a market capitalization ten times larger than Salt Trading.Hydropower and Life Insurance:
Both sectors showed modest growth, gaining 1.00% and 1.37%, respectively. The hydropower sector's rise was fueled by the performance of stocks like Khani Khola Hydropower and Joshi Hydropower, which were among the week's top gainers.Banking Sector:
The banking sector continued its downtrend, declining by 3.48%. This sector’s poor performance can be attributed to weak investor confidence and increased selling pressure, which also dragged down related sectors like development banks and finance.Other Sectors:
Most other sectors, including microfinance, non-life insurance, hotels, and manufacturing, experienced marginal declines, reflecting a broader cautious sentiment among investors.
Top Gainers and Losers
Several stocks recorded significant gains this week, with hydropower companies dominating the leaderboard.
Company | Current Price (NPR) | % Growth |
|---|---|---|
Khani Khola Hydropower | 428 | +45.36% |
Joshi Hydropower | 475 | +37.88% |
Divyashwori Hydropower | 337 | +26.22% |
Bishal Bazar | 6,630 | +21.76% |
Mandakini Hydropower | 938 | +18.14% |
Narayani Dev. Bank | 1,234.20 | +16.43% |
Super Madi Hydropower | 1,149 | +16.18% |
River Falls Power | 1,050 | +13.39% |
Swabhiman Laghubitta | 2,205 | +12.50% |
Molung Hydropower | 508 | +12.14% |
On the other hand, several banking and finance stocks ended the week in the red, contributing to the sector’s underperformance.
Trading Activity Analysis
The total weekly turnover exceeded NPR 45 billion, with notable activity observed in Nepal Finance, NRN Infrastructure, and Ngadi Group Power. Nepal Finance topped the list with transactions worth NPR 1.58 billion, followed by NRN Infrastructure and Ngadi Group Power.
Broker Analysis:
Broker number 58 led the market activity, recording total transactions worth NPR 1.33 billion, comprising NPR 760 million in buy trades and NPR 570 million in sell trades, achieving a 1.34 buy-to-sell ratio. Stocks like Rasuwagadhi Hydropower (RHPL) and NLG Insurance saw significant activity by key brokers, raising suspicions of operator influence.
Technical Analysis
The NEPSE index continues to struggle below its 2,780-point resistance level, failing to generate sustained upward momentum. While the formation of higher lows (HL) suggests the market remains in an uptrend, the weakening strength of the rally since October indicates a cautious outlook.
MACD Analysis:
The MACD line is nearing a critical decision point. If the signal line crosses below the MACD line, it could confirm a bearish trend, signaling a potential downturn.Trendline Support:
The index remains above its trendline support, providing a cushion for cautious optimism. Analysts predict that breaching this support could lead to accelerated selling pressure.Volume Analysis:
Trading volumes have remained steady, reflecting sustained participation despite the index's decline. However, the lack of substantial buying pressure above the resistance level suggests weak bullish sentiment.
Future Outlook
Market analysts predict that next week will be crucial for the NEPSE index, as it approaches critical support and resistance levels. A decisive move above 2,780 points could signal the resumption of the uptrend, while a breach below current levels may trigger a deeper correction.
Resistance and Support:
The 2,780-point resistance remains the immediate hurdle for the index. A breakout above this level could attract fresh buying interest. Conversely, if the index breaches its trendline support, it could lead to a sell-off.Investor Sentiment:
Sentiment remains cautious, with many investors adopting a wait-and-watch approach. The upcoming week is expected to witness increased volatility as technical and fundamental factors converge.Key Factors to Watch:
MACD crossover: A bearish crossover could dampen market sentiment further.
Operator Activity: Stocks like RHPL and NLG Insurance require closer monitoring for potential manipulative practices.
Sectoral Performance: Continued strength in the trading and hydropower sectors could provide much-needed support to the broader market.
Conclusion
The NEPSE index's performance this week highlights the ongoing struggle between bullish optimism and bearish pressure. While technical indicators suggest the market remains in an uptrend, the weakening momentum and failure to break key resistance levels underline the fragility of investor confidence.
As the market gears up for another crucial week, all eyes are on the 2,780-point resistance level and the broader sectoral trends. Investors are advised to remain vigilant, adopt a data-driven approach, and closely monitor technical indicators to navigate the prevailing uncertainty.
