नेप्से लगातार दोस्रो दिन ओरालो, कारोबार भने बढ्यो : बजारमा गुरुङ-प्रकरणको चर्चा, प्राविधिक रूपमा तीन सपोर्टमा अडिएको परिसूचकNEPSE Falls for Second Straight Day on Rising Turnover: Gurung Chatter Grips Market as Index Rests on Triple Support

KATHMANDU — The NEPSE index closed lower for a second consecutive day on Friday, the final trading session of the week. Extending the previous day's decline, the benchmark shed 11.37 points to settle at 2,755.41.

Even as the index slipped, turnover rose markedly. From around Rs 4.70 billion on Thursday, trading climbed past Rs 5.62 billion on Friday, with more than 12.7 million shares of 351 companies changing hands in over 55,000 transactions, according to NEPSE.

Among the 13 sub-indices, four advanced while nine declined. The finance subgroup led the gainers with a 2.77 percent rise, while hotels and tourism, mutual funds and non-life insurance posted modest gains.

A few stocks saw striking moves. Kalinchowk Hydropower traded at its positive circuit level, jumping Rs 98.80 to a last traded price of Rs 757.60, while Upakar Laghubitta climbed more than 9.5 percent. By turnover, Aankhukhola Jalvidyut topped the chart with trades worth over Rs 556.9 million in a single day, with City Hotel and NBBL Debenture 2085 also among the most actively traded.

As for what is driving the two-day slide, one political theory is doing the rounds in market circles. Some investors link the selling pressure to speculation that preparations are underway to reinstate former home minister Sudhan Gurung. A section of investors is said to be rattled by the prospect that, should Gurung return to the Home Ministry, big market players could find themselves in his crosshairs. It must be stressed, however, that this is investor conjecture — market chatter, not a confirmed cause of the decline.

The backdrop to that chatter is fresh. The committee formed to investigate the allegations against Gurung has submitted its roughly 45-page report to Prime Minister Balendra Shah. The panel, led by former High Court judge Achyut Prasad Bhandari, included Financial Comptroller General Shobhakant Paudel and Joint Attorney Achyutmani Neupane as members. It says it completed its investigation after a detailed study of property declarations, banking transactions, land and share records and other financial documents, along with recorded statements.

Gurung was dragged into controversy after questions arose over his partnership with controversial businessman Deepak Bhatt, opacity in his share details and the sources of his assets. Once Bhatt was arrested in a money laundering case, the transactions linking the two pushed Gurung to the center of public debate, and after questions mounted over the land, shares and gold in his public asset declaration, he tendered his resignation to the prime minister on Baisakh 9.

With the report now submitted, political circles have begun interpreting it as leaning toward clearing Gurung. Officials, however, caution that no firm conclusion can be drawn until the formal findings are made public. Since implementation and the final call rest with the government, uncertainty persists over whether the report opens the door to Gurung's return to office or stokes fresh controversy — and that political uncertainty, market watchers reckon, may well be echoing in the stock market's psychology.

Technical View: NEPSE at a Triple-Support Confluence

Technically, the market closed below the previous day's candle low, printing yet another lower-low candle. But Friday's spinning top — a candle that reflects a full day of indecision — landed on strong and important support. And that support does not stand alone: three levels have converged at one point. Friday's close sits at the confluence of the middle band, or the 20-day moving average (currently 2,754.22), the rising support trendline and the pivot. With the index finishing barely a point above the 20-day average, the market is standing exactly on the decisive line, says technical analyst Ajit Khanal.

That makes the coming sessions critical. According to Khanal, a breakdown of this triple support could trigger panic in the market. If the support holds, however, this level becomes the market's firm base — from which the index could attempt the journey toward the ascending triangle's neckline at around 2,800. The market, in his assessment, can be expected to respect this support.

The indicators and the intraday action, though, lean toward caution. The RSI, at 50.58 the previous day, slipped to 48.04 on Friday — below the midline. The market opened with a slight gap down, set the day's high of 2,769.21 within the first two minutes, and then ground lower through the session in a pattern of lower lows and lower highs. Rising turnover on a red candle, Khanal notes, is itself a signal of firm selling pressure.

The market's other worrying habit repeated as well: the negative sentiment that surfaces after 2 pm appeared in the same pattern on Friday, with the late session weighing on the market almost every day of late. The big players moved in the same direction — six of the ten largest brokers by turnover sold more than they bought.

In sum, the market stands at the meeting point of three supports while sellers lean on the close. Whether this support holds or gives way, Khanal concludes, is the question whose answer will set the market's near-term direction.

(This report is based on technical analysis; investors should do their own research before making any investment decision.)