नेप्सेमा सामान्य सुधार, तर बजार अझै अन्योलमैNEPSE Sees Modest Recovery, But Market Sentiment Remains Uncertain
नेपाल स्टक एक्सचेञ्ज (नेप्से) परिसूचक बिहीबार सामान्य अंकले बढेर बन्द भएको छ । अघिल्लो कारोबार दिन घटेको बजार यस दिन हरियालीमा फर्किए पनि कारोबार रकम घटिरहेकाले लगानीकर्ताको आत्मविश्वास अझै पूर्ण रूपमा फर्किन नसकेको संकेत देखिएको छ ।
साताको अन्तिम कारोबार दिन नेप्से परिसूचक ६.९४ अंकले बढेर २७१८.१६ विन्दुमा पुगेको छ । सेन्सेटिभ इण्डेक्स ०.९५ अंकले बढ्दा फ्लोट इण्डेक्स ०.३० अंक र सेन्सेटिभ फ्लोट इण्डेक्स ०.२२ अंकले वृद्धि भएको छ । बजार हरियो भए पनि वृद्धि सीमित रहेकाले बजार अझै स्पष्ट दिशामा अघि बढ्न नसकेको विश्लेषकहरूको भनाइ छ ।
कारोबार रकममा भने गिरावट देखिएको छ । बुधबार ३ अर्ब १९ करोड रुपैयाँभन्दा बढीको कारोबार भएको बजारमा बिहीबार २ अर्ब ९३ करोड रुपैयाँमा सीमित भएको छ । ३३४ कम्पनीका ६६ लाखभन्दा बढी कित्ता शेयर किनबेच भएका छन् । लगातार कारोबार रकम घट्दै जानुले ठूला लगानीकर्ता अझै सक्रिय नभएको संकेत गरेको छ ।
उपसमूहतर्फ हेर्दा १३ मध्ये ८ समूह बढेका छन् भने ५ समूह घटेका छन् । व्यापार समूह सबैभन्दा बढी १.५७ प्रतिशतले बढेको छ । बैंकिङसहित केही क्षेत्रमा खरिद चाप देखिए पनि वित्त, लगानी, उत्पादन तथा प्रशोधन, म्युचुअल फण्ड र निर्जीवन बीमा समूहमा भने दबाब कायम रह्यो ।
यस दिन स्वाबलम्बन लघुवित्तको शेयर मूल्य सर्वाधिक १२.१९ प्रतिशतले बढेको छ । यद्यपि बजारका अधिकांश कम्पनीको मूल्य वृद्धि सामान्य सीमाभित्रै रहेको देखिएको छ । अर्कोतर्फ फरवार्ड माइक्रोफाइनान्सको शेयर मूल्य १३.२४ प्रतिशतले घट्दा अप्पर लोहोरे खोला जलविद्युत कम्पनीको मूल्य पनि ९ प्रतिशतभन्दा बढीले ओरालो लागेको छ । यसले बजारमा अस्थिरता अझै कायम रहेको देखाएको छ ।
कारोबार रकमका आधारमा एनआरएन इन्फ्रास्ट्रक्चर एण्ड डेभलपमेन्ट शीर्ष स्थानमा रह्यो । कम्पनीको १७ करोड ६८ लाख रुपैयाँभन्दा बढीको कारोबार भएको छ । रिलायन्स स्पिनिङ मिल्स र नेशनल हाइड्रोपावरको पनि उच्च कारोबार भएको छ ।
प्राविधिक रूपमा हेर्दा बजार अझै पूर्ण रूपमा बलियो भइसकेको संकेत देखिँदैन । बिहीबार बनेको क्याण्डलले बजारमा खरिदकर्ता र बिक्रीकर्ताबीच अझै स्पष्ट नियन्त्रण स्थापित नभएको देखाएको छ । दिनभर बजार माथि जान खोजे पनि अन्तिम समयमा बिक्री दबाब बढेको देखिन्छ ।
विश्लेषकहरूका अनुसार अहिले नेप्से निर्णायक मोडमा रहेको छ । बजारले २७२८ विन्दुभन्दा माथि बलियो कारोबारसहित टिक्न सके छोटो अवधिमा सुधारको सम्भावना रहन्छ । तर कारोबार रकम कमजोर भइरहेकाले बजार अझै ‘पर्ख र हेर’को अवस्थामै रहेको उनीहरूको भनाइ छ ।
The Nepal Stock Exchange (NEPSE) index closed slightly higher on Thursday, recovering from the previous session’s decline. However, the continued fall in trading turnover suggests that investor confidence has not fully returned to the market.
On the final trading day of the week, the NEPSE index gained 6.94 points to close at 2,718.16. The Sensitive Index also edged up by 0.95 points, while the Float Index and Sensitive Float Index rose by 0.30 and 0.22 points respectively. Despite the green close, analysts say the market is still struggling to find a clear direction as the overall rise remained limited.
Trading turnover, meanwhile, continued to weaken. The market, which had recorded transactions worth more than Rs 3.19 billion on Wednesday, saw turnover fall to Rs 2.93 billion on Thursday. More than 6.6 million shares of 334 companies were traded through over 45,000 transactions. The declining turnover trend is being viewed as a sign that large institutional investors are still staying on the sidelines.
Sector-wise, 8 out of the 13 traded groups closed in positive territory, while 5 sectors declined. The trading sector posted the highest gain of 1.57 percent. Buying interest was visible in selected sectors outside banking, but finance, investment, manufacturing and processing, mutual funds, and non-life insurance sectors remained under pressure.
Among individual stocks, Swabalamban Laghubitta recorded the highest gain of 12.19 percent. However, most companies posted only moderate gains, indicating that buying pressure remained concentrated in a limited number of stocks. On the losing side, Forward Microfinance dropped by 13.24 percent, while Upper Lohore Khola Hydropower also declined by more than 9 percent, reflecting continued volatility in the market.
In terms of turnover, NRN Infrastructure and Development topped the chart with transactions worth over Rs 176.8 million. Reliance Spinning Mills and National Hydropower also witnessed strong trading activity during the session.
Technical indicators suggest that the market has not yet regained strong momentum. The daily candlestick formed on Thursday reflected market indecision, showing that neither buyers nor sellers were able to establish clear control. Although the market attempted to move higher during the session, selling pressure emerged near the close.
Chart patterns continue to show a “lower high” and “lower low” structure, indicating that the broader market trend remains weak. Analysts note that the market is still trading below a key downward trendline, which has yet to be decisively broken.
According to technical analysts, the 2,728-point level is currently acting as immediate resistance. A strong breakout above this zone with higher trading volume could improve short-term momentum. On the downside, the 2,669 level remains an important support area. If the market falls below this level, additional pressure could emerge toward 2,608 and 2,568 points.
Analysts say the market is currently at a crucial stage. While there is still room for short-term recovery, weak turnover and limited participation from major investors indicate that the market remains largely in a “wait and watch” phase.
