नेप्से सामान्य अंकले हरियाली, इन्वर्टेड ह्याम्बर बनेपछि.... NEPSE Slightly Up with an Inverted Hammer Pattern, Market Remains Uncertain Despite Surge in Margin Lending
साताको पहिलो दिन आइतबार नेप्से परिसूचक सामान्य अंकले हरियालीमा बन्द भएको छ । अघिल्ला दुई दिन लगातार घटेको बजारमा आइतबार ०.४७ अंकले वृद्धिसँगै नेप्से २६५५.८५ विन्दुमा पुगेको हो ।
पछिल्लो समय सेयर धितो कर्जामा तीव्र वृद्धि देखिएको छ । नेपाल राष्ट्र बैंकको तथ्यांकअनुसार २०८२ वैशाख मसान्तसम्ममा बैंक तथा वित्तीय संस्थाहरूले १ खर्ब २५ अर्ब रुपैयाँभन्दा बढी सेयर धितो कर्जा प्रवाह गरिसकेका छन् । यो अघिल्लो वर्षको तुलनामा ३५ अर्बले बढी हो । नबिल बैंक, ग्लोबल आइएमई र कुमारी बैंक मुख्य कर्जा प्रवाहकर्तामध्ये पर्छन् भने विकास बैंक र फाइनान्स कम्पनीहरू क्रमशः १८ अर्ब र ४ अर्बभन्दा बढी कर्जा प्रवाह गरेका छन् । १ करोडभन्दा माथिको सेयर धितो कर्जा पनि ५३% ले बढेर ८५ अर्ब नाघेको छ ।
तर बजार भने अझै २६००–२७०० अंक सीमाभित्र अल्झिएको छ । कारोबार रकम पनि घट्दै गएको छ । आजको कारोबार ११ अर्ब ४४ करोड रुपैयाँमा सीमित रह्यो भने बिहीबारको कारोबार १२.५ अर्ब रुपैयाँको थियो । कुल ९५ हजारभन्दा बढी पटकको कारोबारमा २ करोड ५३ लाख कित्ता शेयर किनबेच भए ।
आइतबारको क्यान्डल संरचना ‘इन्वर्टेड ह्याम्बर’ मा बन्द भएको छ जुन बजारमा संकोच र अनिश्चितताको संकेत हो । मिडल ब्यान्ड ब्रेक गर्न नसकेको क्यान्डलले बजार अझै दबावमा रहेको देखाउँछ । ५० दिनको मूभिङ एभरेज र डेथ क्रस ओभरको उपस्थितिले बजारमा डाउनट्रेन्ड कायम रहेको विश्लेषण गरिएको छ । यदि सोमबार बजार आजको हाईभन्दा माथि बन्द हुन सके, इन्वर्टेड ह्याम्बर कन्फर्म हुने र बजारमा सानो बाउन्स आउन सक्ने अनुमान गरिएको छ ।
ग्रीन डेभलपमेन्ट बैंक, पियोर इनर्जी र छ्याङ्दी हाइड्रोपावरले आज सर्किट लेभल छोएका छन् । बरुण हाइड्रोपावरको शेयर १०% जति बढ्यो भने युनियन हाइड्रो ९% माथि उकालो लाग्यो । सानिमा माइ हाइड्रोपावर ८९ करोडको कारोबारसहित अग्रस्थानमा रह्यो भने त्यसपछि ङादी ग्रुप र बुटवल पावर कम्पनीको उच्च कारोबार देखियो ।
ब्रोकर क्रियाकलापको विश्लेषण गर्दा १० मध्ये ४ ब्रोकरले बाई अधिक गरेका छन् भने ६ ले सेल बढी देखिएका छन् । सबैभन्दा धेरै कारोबार गर्ने ब्रोकर नं. ४५ ले १ अर्ब ३२ करोडको कारोबारमा बाई ६४ करोड र सेल ६७ करोड गरेको छ । यसले बजारमा ठूलो ब्रोकरहरूमा पनि सेलीङ्ग प्रेसर देखिएको संकेत दिन्छ ।
धितो कर्जाको वृद्धिले बजारमा तत्काल ठूलो उथलपुथल ल्याएको छैन । मौद्रिक नीतिमा जोखिम भार घटाइए पनि बजार अझै स्पष्ट नीति र दिशाको प्रतीक्षामा छ । नयाँ गभर्नरप्रतिको आशा र प्राविधिक संकेतको भरमा बजार अल्पकालीन बाउन्स त गर्न सक्छ, तर स्थायीत्वका लागि अझ ठोस नीति आवश्यक देखिन्छ ।
On the first trading day of the week, the NEPSE index closed slightly higher, gaining 0.47 points to settle at 2,655.85. This follows two consecutive bearish sessions last week.
Despite a significant rise in margin lending, the secondary market hasn’t responded with the same level of enthusiasm. According to Nepal Rastra Bank data, margin lending reached over NPR 125 billion by mid-May 2025 (Baisakh-end, FY 2081/82), which is NPR 35 billion higher than the same period last year. In FY 2080/81, the total margin lending was about NPR 90 billion, and it was just NPR 80 billion in FY 2079/80.
Nabil Bank leads in margin loan disbursement with over NPR 14.59 billion lent, followed by Global IME and Kumari Bank. Development banks have issued around NPR 18 billion, while finance companies have crossed NPR 4 billion in margin loans. Loans above NPR 10 million surged by 53%, crossing NPR 85 billion.
However, NEPSE continues to hover between 2,600 and 2,700 points, with daily turnover stagnating around NPR 6–7 billion. Market analysts suggest that investors are waiting for more clear policy signals. Investor sentiment remains cautiously optimistic following the appointment of new NRB Governor Bishwanath Paudel. The recent monetary policy revision reducing the risk weight of margin lending from 125% to 100% has provided some relief, but its impact is yet to reflect in market momentum.
Technical Outlook: Inverted Hammer Indicates Indecision
Sunday’s candlestick closed in an Inverted Hammer formation, indicating market indecision following recent bearish momentum. The candle tested the middle Bollinger Band but failed to break above it, showing continued resistance. The 50-day moving average remains a strong technical barrier, and the Death Cross is still in play, indicating the market may still be in a downtrend.
If Monday's session closes above today's high, it would confirm the inverted hammer and could signal a short-term bounce. Notably, the final 20 minutes of Sunday’s trading saw increased activity in large and mid-cap hydropower stocks like Sanima Mai, Ngadi Group, and Butwal Power, helping the market avoid a sharper decline. However, a familiar pattern of selling pressure emerged 15 minutes after market open, reflecting underlying uncertainty.
Top Gainers, Turnover & Circuit Hits
Green Development Bank, Pure Energy, and Chhyangdi Hydropower hit their upper circuit limits today. Barun Hydropower surged nearly 10%, and Union Hydropower gained over 9%. Sanima Mai led trading turnover with NPR 890 million, followed by Ngadi Group (NPR 870 million) and Butwal Power Company (NPR 640 million).
Sectoral Movement
Out of 13 sector indices, 5 closed higher and 8 declined. The Manufacturing & Processing sector rose 1.47%, and Trading gained over 1%. However, Banking, Finance, Microfinance, Insurance, Mutual Funds, Hotels, and Others all ended in the red.
Broker Analysis: Mixed Signals
Among the top 10 brokers, 4 had more buy transactions than sell, while 6 showed higher sell volume. Broker No. 45 led in volume with NPR 1.32 billion in turnover (NPR 645 million buy, NPR 677 million sell). Broker No. 58 recorded NPR 1.13 billion (NPR 533 million buy, NPR 596 million sell). Brokers 34 and 57 also showed stronger buy-side activity.
Previously, large brokers were accumulating, but today’s data reveals emerging selling pressure from top players, signaling caution.
Conclusion
Despite a rapid rise in margin lending and monetary easing, the market hasn’t responded with a breakout. Investors appear to be in wait-and-see mode, anticipating policy clarity. The technical structure suggests indecision, and only a strong bullish close above today's high would confirm a short-term recovery.
