Shift Seen in Export–Import Structure, Rising Dependence on Consumer Goods Exports

Data from the first four months of fiscal year 2082/83 (up to mid-November 2025) show a noticeable shift in Nepal’s foreign trade structure, reflecting changing patterns in production, consumption and investment. According to figures released by Nepal Rastra Bank, the composition of both exports and imports has changed compared to the same period last year, offering important insights into the underlying direction of the economy.

During the review period, consumer goods accounted for 69.6 percent of total exports, a sharp increase from 50.9 percent in the corresponding period of the previous year. This indicates that the recent surge in exports has been largely driven by final consumption items rather than industrial or capital-intensive products. At the same time, the share of intermediate goods in total exports declined to 29.8 percent, down significantly from 48.2 percent a year earlier.
Exports of capital goods remained marginal at just 0.6 percent, slightly lower than 0.9 percent recorded in the same period last year.

Economists note that while the growing share of consumer goods exports has helped boost overall export earnings in the short term, it raises concerns about sustainability. The continued weakness in exports of intermediate and capital goods suggests limited progress in industrial upgrading, value addition and technological capacity.

On the import side, the structure points to a different trend. Intermediate goods made up 53.0 percent of total imports during the review period, up from 48.7 percent last year. This increase indicates higher imports of raw materials and semi-processed goods used in manufacturing and construction.
Meanwhile, the share of consumer goods imports declined to 38.2 percent, compared to 42.6 percent in the previous year, suggesting some moderation in consumption-driven imports. Imports of capital goods accounted for 8.8 percent, slightly higher than 8.7 percent a year earlier.

The rising share of intermediate and capital goods in imports is viewed as a sign of expanding industrial activity and infrastructure-related investment. However, the mismatch between the structure of exports and imports remains a concern. While Nepal is importing more production-oriented goods, its exports continue to be dominated by consumer items with relatively low value addition.

Overall, the latest figures highlight a structural imbalance in Nepal’s foreign trade. Analysts argue that achieving a more sustainable trade position will require strengthening domestic industries, promoting value-added manufacturing, and expanding exports of intermediate and capital goods. Without such structural changes, improvements in export growth may remain short-lived, and the trade deficit will continue to pose a challenge to the economy.