Mild Recovery in NEPSE; Turnover Sees Significant Surge, Today’s Candle Signals Possible Reversal

On Thursday, the Nepal Stock Exchange (NEPSE) showed a slight recovery from its recent downtrend. The NEPSE index rose by 1.62 points to close at 2,788.36. However, other indices displayed mixed movements — the Sensitive Index dropped by 0.93 points to 492.36, the Float Index declined by 0.11 points to 191.95, and the Sensitive Float Index fell by 0.31 points to 167.28.

A major highlight was the notable jump in trading turnover. A total of 249 companies saw 19,258,445 shares traded, worth NPR 7.4641 billion. This is a sharp increase compared to Wednesday’s NPR 6.1618 billion turnover, suggesting renewed investor interest in the market.

Among top gainers, Nepal Republic Media led the rally, hitting the circuit level. Panchakanya Mai Hydropower rose by 5.56%, while Kumari Saval Yojana, Radhi Hydropower, and Upper Syang Hydropower each gained more than 4%. On the losing side, mutual fund units were the most impacted, with NIC Asia Flexi Cap Fund, NIC Asia Select 30, and NIC Asia Balance Fund units dropping over 6%, denting sentiment in the sector.

In terms of turnover, Nepal Reinsurance Company ranked first with NPR 471.1 million in trades, followed by NRN Infrastructure & Development Company with NPR 410 million. This indicates strong investor attraction in the insurance and infrastructure sectors.

Out of 13 sub-indices, 5 closed higher — Others, Development Bank, Finance, Investment, Manufacturing & Processing, and Trading. The remaining 8, including Banking, Finance, Hotels, Hydropower, Life Insurance, Microfinance, Mutual Funds, and Non-Life Insurance, ended in the red. Post-trading, the market capitalization stood at NPR 4.6567 trillion, reflecting sector-specific fluctuations despite stable market size.

Technical Analysis
Analysts view the simultaneous rise in both turnover and the NEPSE index as a positive signal. Today’s candle has been interpreted as a reversal signal, with many identifying it as a Doji — a pattern considered to indicate market indecision but potential trend change. Some analysts also likened it to a spinning top, reinforcing the reversal possibility. They noted that the market is currently in a demand zone, which could trigger a rebound at any moment.

If the 20-day average turnover crosses NPR 14 billion, it would confirm strong market support from liquidity. At present, NEPSE is near its support zone, but if it falls below 2,750, analysts warn the market could face a prolonged sideways phase.

Broker Analysis
Looking at the top 10 brokers by turnover, 4 were net sellers, while the other 6 recorded higher buying volumes. This mixed broker activity reflects varying strategies in anticipation of a potential market reversal.