नेपालको सेयर बजारमा सञ्चालनमा रहेका म्युचुअल फन्डहरूको लगानी प्राथमिकतामा उल्लेखनीय परिवर्तन आएको छ। पछिल्लो एक वर्षको तथ्यांक हेर्दा फन्डहरूको लगानीको ठूलो हिस्सा बैंकिङ क्षेत्रबाट हाइड्रोपावर र उत्पादन तथा प्रशोधन समूहतर्फ सर्दै गएको स्पष्ट देखिन्छ।

२०७८–७९ को वैशाखमा फन्डहरूको कुल लगानीको ३५.८४ प्रतिशत वाणिज्य बैंकको सेयरमा थियो। तर २०८३ को वैशाखसम्म आइपुग्दा यो हिस्सा घटेर १८.९२ प्रतिशतमा झरेको छ। अर्थात् करिब आधाले कमी आएको छ। यसको तुलनामा हाइड्रोपावरमा ६.१९ प्रतिशत विन्दु र उत्पादन तथा प्रशोधन समूहमा ४.८८ प्रतिशत विन्दुले लगानी हिस्सा बढेको छ।

हाल फन्डहरूको बैंकमा १२ अर्ब ७५ करोड, हाइड्रोपावरमा १० अर्ब ४९ करोड र उत्पादन समूहमा ६ अर्ब ३६ करोड रुपैयाँ लगानी रहेको छ। रकमका हिसाबले सबैभन्दा बढी लगानी अझै बैंकमै छ, तर हिस्साको दृष्टिकोणले भने गिरावट जारी छ।

बैंक तथा वित्तीय संस्थाहरूमा बढ्दो एनपीएल, लाभांश क्षमतामा गिरावट र अत्यधिक पुँजी वृद्धिका कारण आरओई घट्नु पनि फन्डहरूलाई निरुत्साहित गर्ने कारण बनेको विश्लेषकहरू बताउँछन्। साथै, आईपीओमा म्युचुअल फन्डहरूले पाउने ५ प्रतिशत आरक्षणका कारण पनि हाइड्रोपावर र उत्पादन समूहमा लगानी हिस्सा बढेको देखिएको छ।

हाल सञ्चालनमा रहेका फन्डहरूको सेयर बजारमा ५० अर्ब रुपैयाँभन्दा बढी लगानी रहेको छ। संस्थागत लगानीकर्ताहरू पनि बजारको ट्रेन्ड पछ्याउन थालेपछि नेपालको सेयर बजारको दीर्घकालीन स्थायित्वमाथि प्रश्न उठ्न थालेको छ।

A significant shift is underway in how Nepal's mutual funds are allocating their investments. Data from the past year reveals a clear trend — funds are steadily moving away from the banking sector and redirecting their portfolios toward hydropower and manufacturing and processing companies.

Just a few years ago, in the fiscal year 2078–79, commercial banks commanded 35.84 percent of total mutual fund investment. By the end of Baisakh 2083, that figure had fallen sharply to just 18.92 percent — nearly half of what it once was. In contrast, hydropower gained 6.19 percentage points and the manufacturing and processing sector rose by 4.88 percentage points over the same period.

In absolute terms, mutual funds currently hold Rs. 12.75 billion in bank stocks, Rs. 10.49 billion in hydropower, and Rs. 6.36 billion in the manufacturing sector. While banks still attract the largest sum in rupee terms, their share of the overall portfolio continues to shrink.

Market analyst Dev Guragain attributes this shift largely to a growing short-term trading mindset among institutional investors. "There is simply no trading atmosphere in the banking sector right now," he said. "The narrative in the market is that bank stocks won't rise. So funds are moving toward sectors where price movement is expected." He added that newly listed companies tend to attract more excitement in the market since their limited supply creates greater price volatility — making them more attractive for short-term gains compared to bank stocks, which have enormous share volumes and tend to flatten out quickly when supply hits the market.

Guragain also pointed to the IPO reservation system as a contributing factor. Mutual funds receive a five percent reservation in every public offering, and a large number of recent IPOs have come from the hydropower and manufacturing sectors. This has naturally pushed fund allocations in that direction. However, he was careful to note that IPO reservations alone do not fully explain the shift — the short-term trading mentality plays an equally significant role.

The weakening fundamentals of the banking sector have added to the problem. Rising non-performing loans, difficulties in asset recovery, shrinking dividend capacity, and declining return on equity due to excessive capital expansion have all made bank stocks less appealing to fund managers looking for returns.

With over Rs. 50 billion deployed across Nepal's stock market, mutual funds remain major players. But as institutional investors increasingly follow market trends rather than anchor them, questions are growing among ordinary investors about the long-term stability and direction of Nepal's capital market.