Signs of Economic Improvement, Second Quarter Growth Estimated at 5.1%

The National Statistics Office has released the National Accounts Estimate for the second quarter (July–December) of the current fiscal year 2081/82 (2024/25), indicating signs of improvement in the economy. According to the data released on Wednesday, the overall economic growth rate for this period is preliminarily estimated at 5.1 percent. However, when adjusted for seasonal effects, this growth rate is limited to 2.2 percent.

The data reveals that all 18 industrial sectors recorded positive value-added growth rates. The transportation and storage sector led with the highest growth rate of 14.2 percent, followed by the mining and quarrying sector at 9.5 percent. Similarly, the electricity and gas sector is estimated to achieve a 9.2 percent growth rate, while the construction sector is projected at 9.1 percent. Manufacturing industries are expected to see a 7.4 percent growth, the financial and insurance sector 6.6 percent, and the trade sector 6.1 percent.

The agriculture sector, which contributes the largest share to the economy, is projected to grow by a modest 3.2 percent. Increases in paddy, vegetables, citrus fruits, winter fruits, and livestock production have positively impacted this sector, according to the office. The wholesale and retail trade sector also recorded a 6.1 percent growth rate, driven by rises in domestic production and imports of key trade-related goods.

When adjusted for seasonal effects, production increased in 16 out of the 18 industrial sectors. However, the electricity and gas sector is expected to see a negative growth of 4.8 percent, and the accommodation and food services sector a negative growth of 2.7 percent. The transportation and storage sector is projected to grow by 6.4 percent, while the financial and insurance sector is expected at 3.9 percent.

According to the National Statistics Office, growth in transportation, construction, agriculture, electricity production, and the financial sector has steered the economy in a positive direction. However, the lack of significant progress in education, accommodation, and other service sectors has kept the overall growth rate moderate.

Economists view this data as a sign of economic recovery but emphasize the need for further policy reforms to ensure sustainable growth.