
The NEPSE Journal
Market commentary, data deep-dives, and trading notes from the NEPSE Trading desk.

As of mid-September 2025, Nepal’s commercial banks held Rs 1.02 trillion, or nearly 80%, of the government’s Rs 1.27 trillion domestic debt. Their holdings declined slightly by Rs 9 billion over two months, reflecting a shift toward long-term development bonds (Rs 770 billion). Experts urge greater debt market diversification to reduce reliance on banks and support private sector credit flow.

In FY 2025/26, Nepal’s treasury bills dropped sharply by Rs 56.4 billion to Rs 319.16 billion, while development bonds rose to Rs 943.76 billion. The shift reflects a policy focus on long-term borrowing and debt sustainability, with total domestic debt now at Rs 1.27 trillion. Analysts see this as fiscally prudent but warn of crowding out effects on private lending.

Nepal’s total revenue and receipts fell by 6.4% year-on-year to Rs 158.71 billion in the first two months of FY 2025/26. Tax revenue declined by 5.3%, with VAT (Rs 52.14B) and customs (Rs 35.39B) showing growth, while income tax (-8.5%) and non-tax revenue (-66.3%) dropped sharply. Analysts urge fiscal reforms and diversification to restore revenue momentum.

In FY 2025/26 (two months), VAT led Nepal’s revenue with a 33% share, followed by customs (22%), excise (18%), and income tax (21%). Non-tax revenue dropped drastically by 66.3%, reducing its contribution to 4.5%. Total revenue reached Rs 157.53B, down 5.3% year-on-year. Analysts highlight Nepal’s rising dependence on indirect taxes and urge diversification to strengthen fiscal resilience.

Nepal’s excise duty surged 14.4% to Rs 28.95 billion in the first two months of FY 2025/26, supporting total revenue amid declining income tax (-8.5%) and non-tax revenue (-66.3%). While VAT (Rs 52.14B) and customs (Rs 35.39B) also rose, total government revenue fell by 5.3% to Rs 157.53 billion. Economists credit stronger consumption and compliance but warn of structural dependence on indirect taxes.

In the first two months of FY 2025/26, VAT (Rs 52.14B, +3.9%) and customs (Rs 35.39B, +7.5%) collections increased, while income tax (-8.5%) and non-tax revenue (-66.3%) declined sharply. Total revenue reached Rs 157.53B, down 5.3% year-on-year. Economists credit consumption recovery for higher indirect taxes but warn that falling income and non-tax revenues pose risks to fiscal stability.