मौद्रिक नीतिपछि पनि घट्यो शेयर बजार, एक सातामै ९० अर्बभन्दा बढी बजार पूँजीकरण गुम्योNepal’s Stock Market Falls Further After Monetary Policy Fails to Restore Investor Confidence
काठमाडौं — मौद्रिक नीतिबाट बजार सुधारको अपेक्षा गरेका शेयर लगानीकर्ताको आशा तत्काल पूरा हुन सकेन। नेपाल राष्ट्र बैंकले ल्याएको मौद्रिक नीतिपछि पनि लगानीकर्ताको मनोबल कमजोर हुँदा शेयर बजार फेरि ओरालो लागेको छ।
बजेट घोषणापछि सुरु भएको बजार गिरावट मौद्रिक नीति सार्वजनिक भएपछि थप दबाबमा परेको देखिएको छ। पछिल्लो सातामा पाँच दिन कारोबार हुँदा नेप्से परिसूचक चार दिन घट्यो भने एक दिन मात्रै सुधार भयो।
साताको सुरुवातमै दबाबमा परेको नेप्से सोमबार २६.२९ अंक घटेर २६२३.११ विन्दुमा झरेको थियो। मौद्रिक नीति आउने दिन मंगलबार भने बजार २४.५७ अंकले बढेर केही राहत देखिए पनि त्यसपछिका तीन कारोबार दिनमा पुनः गिरावट आयो। शुक्रबारसम्म आइपुग्दा नेप्से २६००.७८ विन्दुमा सीमित भएको छ।
समग्रमा साताभर नेप्से ५२.६१ अंकले घटेको छ। बजार परिसूचक घटेसँगै कुल बजार पूँजीकरण पनि ९० अर्ब ४१ करोड रुपैयाँले घटेको छ। अघिल्लो साताको अन्तिम कारोबार दिन ४५ खर्ब ५९ अर्ब रुपैयाँ रहेको बजार पूँजीकरण घटेर यो साता ४४ खर्ब ६८ अर्ब रुपैयाँमा सीमित भएको छ।
बजारमा गिरावट आए पनि कारोबार रकम भने बढेको छ। साताभर २४ अर्ब २५ करोड रुपैयाँभन्दा बढीको शेयर किनबेच भएको छ। औसत दैनिक कारोबार ४ अर्ब ८५ करोड रुपैयाँ पुगेको छ, जुन अघिल्लो साताको तुलनामा उल्लेख्य वृद्धि हो। यसले मूल्य घटे पनि लगानीकर्ताको कारोबार सक्रियता भने कायम रहेको संकेत गर्छ।
साताभर सूचीकृत १३ वटै उपसमूह घटेका छन्। बैंकिङ, हाइड्रोपावर, लघुवित्तलगायत अधिकांश क्षेत्रमा बिक्री दबाब देखिएको छ। यसले बजारको गिरावट कुनै एउटा समूहमा सीमित नभई समग्र बजारमा फैलिएको देखाउँछ।
लगानीकर्ताले मौद्रिक नीतिबाट ब्याजदर, तरलता र शेयर बजार सुधारसँग सम्बन्धित थप सकारात्मक संकेतको अपेक्षा गरेका थिए। तर नीति सार्वजनिक भएपछि पनि अपेक्षित उत्साह नदेखिएपछि बजार मनोविज्ञान कमजोर बनेको विश्लेषण गरिएको छ।
यसैबीच, नेपाल धितोपत्र बोर्ड (सेबोन) ले पूँजी बजार सुधारका लागि पहल थालेको जनाएको छ। बोर्डले बजार सुधार मार्गचित्र तयार गर्ने, कानुनी व्यवस्थाको पुनरावलोकन गर्ने तथा लगानीकर्ताको हित संरक्षणमा केन्द्रित हुने बताएको छ।
विश्लेषकहरूका अनुसार बजारको आगामी दिशा मौद्रिक नीतिको प्रभाव, तरलताको अवस्था, ब्याजदरको गति र नियामक निकायले ल्याउने सुधारका कदममा निर्भर हुनेछ। अहिलेको गिरावटलाई लगानीकर्ताको विश्वास परीक्षण गर्ने चरणका रूपमा हेरिएको छ।
Kathmandu — Share investors who were waiting for Nepal Rastra Bank’s monetary policy hoping for market recovery have been disappointed as the stock market continued its downward movement even after the policy announcement. Although the central bank introduced the monetary policy with the objective of supporting the government’s budget and economic activities, it failed to create the expected improvement in investor sentiment.
The decline that began after the annual budget announcement gained further momentum following the release of the monetary policy. During the latest trading week, the Nepal Stock Exchange (NEPSE) index declined on four out of five trading days, with only one session recording growth.
The NEPSE index, which had closed at 2,653.40 points on the previous Friday, started the week with a sharp decline. On Monday, the index dropped by 26.29 points to 2,623.11 points. On Tuesday, the day the monetary policy was announced, the market recovered by 24.57 points, creating temporary optimism among investors.
However, the positive momentum did not continue. The index declined by 30.09 points on Wednesday and another 19.67 points on Thursday. On the final trading day of the week, Friday, NEPSE slipped by 1.13 points to close at 2,600.78 points.
Overall, the index lost 52.61 points during the week. The decline also reduced Nepal’s total stock market capitalization by Rs 90.41 billion. Market capitalization fell from Rs 45.59 trillion at the end of the previous week to Rs 44.68 trillion.
Despite the fall in the index, trading activity increased. Total share transactions during the five trading days reached Rs 24.25 billion, with average daily turnover standing at around Rs 4.85 billion. This was higher than the previous week’s average daily turnover of about Rs 3.8 billion, indicating that investors remained active despite market uncertainty.
All 13 sectoral groups listed on NEPSE recorded declines during the week. The broad-based fall suggests that the pressure was not limited to a particular sector but affected the overall market environment.
Market participants had expected the monetary policy to provide stronger support through improved liquidity conditions, lower interest rate pressure, and measures to strengthen investor confidence. However, the absence of immediate positive signals has kept investors cautious.
Analysts believe that the current market weakness is largely linked to investor psychology. When expectations from policy measures are not immediately reflected in market conditions, investors often delay new investments and adopt a wait-and-watch approach.
Meanwhile, the Securities Board of Nepal (SEBON) has started initiatives to improve the capital market environment. The regulator is preparing a capital market development roadmap, reviewing existing legal frameworks, and working on measures to make the market more transparent and investor-friendly.
The future direction of NEPSE is expected to depend on several factors, including liquidity conditions, interest rate movements, implementation of monetary policy measures, and the effectiveness of regulatory reforms.
For now, the market remains in a cautious phase, with investors looking beyond policy announcements and waiting for visible improvements in economic and financial conditions.
