नेप्से २७००.४७ मा बन्द: कमजोर टेक्निकल संरचना, लगानीकर्ताको विश्वास डगमगाउँदैNEPSE Closes at 2700.47: Weak Technical Structure, Investor Confidence Continues to Erode
बिहीबार नेपालको सेयर बजार पुनः दबाबमा पर्यो। अघिल्लो दिन बुधबार केही सुधार देखिएको बजारमा यस दिन नेप्से परिसूचक ५.०६ अंकले घटेर २७००.४७ विन्दुमा बन्द भयो। बजार केही ग्यापडाउनसहित खुलेको थियो र पहिलो २० मिनेटमै दिनको उच्च विन्दु छोएको थियो, तर त्यसपछि दिनभर बजार नकारात्मक क्षेत्रमा नै रह्यो। दिउँसो १२:५१ मा दिनको न्यून विन्दु छोएपछि केही सुधारको प्रयास भयो, तर १:४५ बजेपछि बजार पुनः आक्रामक रूपमा झर्यो। बजारको अन्तिम समयमा थप गिरावट आउने पुरानो समस्याले आज पनि बजारलाई पीडा दियो।
कारोबार रकम पनि घट्दै ३ अर्ब ४१ करोड ४८ लाख २३ हजार रुपैयाँमा सीमित भयो, जुन अघिल्लो दिनको ३ अर्ब ६३ करोड रुपैयाँभन्दा कम हो। यस दिन ३४७ वटा स्टकका ७७ लाख ४३ हजार कित्ता सेयर ४१ हजार १०४ पटक कारोबार भए। १० वटा ठूला ब्रोकरको कारोबार हेर्दा ५–५ किनबेच बराबर देखिएको छ जसले बजारमा कुनै स्पष्ट दिशा नरहेको संकेत गर्छ।
उपसमूहगत रूपमा हेर्दा १३ मध्ये ५ उपसमूह बढे भने ८ उपसमूह घटे। बैंकिङ, वित्त, लघुवित्त, म्युचुअल फन्ड र व्यापार समूह सामान्य सकारात्मक देखिए पनि अन्य समूह सबैभन्दा बढी ०.८६ प्रतिशतले गिर्यो। समग्र बजार कमजोर रहे पनि एपोलो हाइड्रोपावर र सोपान फर्मास्यूटिकल्स सकारात्मक सर्किट लेभलमा कारोबार भए। आत्मनिर्भर लघुवित्तको सेयर साढे १२ प्रतिशतले बढ्दा बुंगल हाइड्रोपावर करिब साढे ८ प्रतिशतले उकालो लाग्यो। कारोबार रकमका आधारमा आँखु खोला जलविद्युत कम्पनी ३१ करोड ९८ लाखभन्दा बढीको कारोबारसहित शीर्ष स्थानमा रह्यो भने युनाइटेड मोदी हाइड्रोपावर र सिइडिबी होल्डिङ्स क्रमशः दोस्रो र तेस्रो स्थानमा रहे।
टेक्निकल दृष्टिकोणले हेर्दा बजार हाल एउटा माइनर सपोर्ट जोनमा रहेको छ र यस जोनमा आज स्पिनिङ टप क्यान्डल बनेको छ जुन केही सकारात्मक संकेत हो। तथापि सबैभन्दा चिन्ताजनक पक्ष भनेको क्यान्डलहरूले लगातार हायर हाई (HH) बनाउन नसकिरहेको अवस्था हो। आज बनेको क्यान्डल १२औं क्यान्डल हो जसले HH बनाउन सकेको छैन। यसले बजार संरचनात्मक रूपमा कमजोर रहेको स्पष्ट देखाउँछ। ADX सूचक बढ्न थालेको छ तर घट्दो बजारमा बढ्दो ADX नकारात्मक संकेत हो। RSI सूचक ३६ को स्तरमा झरेको छ जुन ओभरसोल्ड क्षेत्रको नजिक पुग्दैछ। २०० दिनको मुभिङ एभरेज २७१४ विन्दुमा रहेको छ र बजार यसभन्दा तल कारोबार भइरहेको छ।
बजारमा पर्याप्त लगानीयोग्य रकम, घट्दो बैंक ब्याजदर र ३७ खर्ब रुपैयाँ नाघेको विदेशी विनिमय सञ्चितिजस्ता सकारात्मक आर्थिक सूचकहरू विद्यमान छन्। तर यी सूचकहरूले पुँजीबजारमा अपेक्षित उत्साह भर्न सकेका छैनन्। सम्पत्ति छानबिनका विषय, सेबोनमा करिब दुई महिनादेखि कायम नेतृत्व रिक्तता, नीतिगत अस्पष्टता र स्वार्थ समूहको प्रभावबारे बढ्दो आशंकाले बजारमा दबाब कायम रहेको विश्लेषकहरू बताउँछन्। सेबोन नेतृत्व रिक्तताका कारण १०० भन्दा बढी कम्पनीका करिब ६९ अर्ब रुपैयाँभन्दा बढीका आईपीओ आवेदन स्वीकृतिको प्रतीक्षामा थन्किएका छन्।
पछिल्ला तीन महिनामा नेप्सेको बजार पुँजीकरण करिब ४ खर्ब रुपैयाँले घटेको अनुमान छ। बजार विश्लेषकहरूका अनुसार अबको मुख्य पर्खाइ HH क्यान्डल बन्ने संकेतको रहनेछ। जबसम्म बजारले HH बनाउँदैन तबसम्म सतर्कता अपनाउनु नै बुद्धिमानी हुने र तत्काल उल्लेखनीय सुधारका लागि सरकारको स्पष्ट नीति र सेबोनमा स्थायी नेतृत्व नियुक्ति अपरिहार्य रहेको विज्ञहरू बताउँछन्।
Thursday proved to be another difficult day for Nepal's stock market. Following a brief recovery on Wednesday, the NEPSE index slipped back into negative territory, closing down 5.06 points at 2700.47. The market opened with a slight gap down and touched its intraday high within the first 20 minutes of trading. After that early move, however, sellers took control and the index remained in negative territory for the rest of the session. The market attempted a modest recovery after hitting its intraday low at 12:51 PM, but aggressive selling returned from 1:45 PM onward, pushing the index lower once again. The familiar pattern of late-session weakness, which has plagued the market for some time, repeated itself yet again on Thursday.
Trading volume also declined, with total turnover settling at Rs. 3.41 billion — down from the previous day's Rs. 3.63 billion. A total of 7,743,000 shares of 347 stocks changed hands across 41,104 transactions. An analysis of the top 10 brokers revealed an almost perfectly balanced buy-sell ratio of 5–5, suggesting there is no clear directional conviction among the market's largest participants.
Of the 13 sub-indices, 5 gained ground while 8 declined. Banking, finance, microfinance, mutual funds, and trading sub-groups managed marginal gains, while the "others" category led losses with a decline of 0.86 percent. Despite the broadly weak market, select stocks attracted strong buying interest. Apollo Hydropower and Sopan Pharmaceuticals both hit their positive circuit levels, while Aatmanirbhar Microfinance surged 12.5 percent and Bungal Hydropower climbed approximately 8.5 percent. On the downside, losses among declining stocks were contained within 6 percent. In terms of turnover, Ankhu Khola Hydropower topped the list with over Rs. 31.98 crore in trades, followed by United Modi Hydropower at Rs. 23 crore and CEDB Holdings at over Rs. 14 crore.
From a technical standpoint, the market is currently sitting on a minor support zone, where today's spinning top candlestick formation offers a faint glimmer of hope. However, the most concerning structural issue remains the market's persistent failure to form a Higher High (HH). Today marked the 12th consecutive candle unable to establish a HH — a clear signal that the market's internal structure remains broken. Until a candle successfully prints a HH, analysts warn that the bearish bias will remain firmly intact. The ADX indicator has begun rising, but a rising ADX in a declining market is itself a negative sign, as it indicates the downtrend is gaining strength rather than losing momentum. The RSI has fallen to the 36 level, approaching oversold territory. The 200-day Moving Average sits at 2714 points, and the market is currently trading below this key long-term benchmark — another red flag for the bulls.
Despite the market's struggles, several positive macroeconomic indicators remain in place. The average maximum interest rate on personal fixed deposits has fallen to 4.27 percent, foreign exchange reserves have crossed Rs. 37 trillion, and there is ample investable liquidity in the system. Yet none of these tailwinds have been able to lift market sentiment. Analysts point to a combination of factors keeping investors on the sidelines — ongoing asset investigation concerns, a prolonged leadership vacuum at the Securities Board of Nepal (SEBON), policy ambiguity, and growing suspicion about the influence of vested interest groups in the market.
The SEBON chairmanship has now been vacant for nearly two months, and the consequences are becoming increasingly visible. IPO approvals, regulatory oversight, and market supervision have all slowed considerably. More than 100 companies are now waiting in line with IPO applications worth over Rs. 69 billion, all pending approval with no clear timeline in sight.
Over the past three months, NEPSE's total market capitalization is estimated to have shrunk by approximately Rs. 400 billion. The steady decline in daily turnover further reflects weakening investor participation and fading confidence across the board.
Market watchers say the key thing to watch going forward is whether the index can produce a Higher High candle. While the spinning top formed at the support zone offers a small ray of hope, analysts are clear — meaningful recovery will require more than just technical signals. Permanent leadership at SEBON, a coherent government policy framework, and long-term regulatory stability are the real prerequisites for restoring investor trust in Nepal's capital market.
