दुई दिनको वृद्धिपछि नेप्से ओरालो : ५० दिने औसत पार गर्न नसकेको बजारलाई अन्तिम घन्टाको बिक्री दबाबNEPSE Snaps Two-Day Rally as Final-Hour Selling Weighs; 2,800 Emerges as the Decisive Level

KATHMANDU — The Nepal Stock Exchange (NEPSE) index turned lower on Thursday after rising for two consecutive trading days. The benchmark shed 13.46 points over the session to close at 2,766.78.

Turnover shrank along with the index. From over Rs 5.73 billion the previous day, Thursday's trading slipped to around Rs 4.70 billion, with more than 10.6 million shares of 353 companies changing hands in over 51,000 transactions.

Even in a falling market, some investors walked away with handsome returns. Kalinchowk Hydropower led the day's gainers with a 14.99 percent jump, Nyadi Hydropower climbed more than 9 percent, and holders of SBI Bank Debenture units booked gains of over 7 percent. On the losing side, SBL Debenture 2084 fell the hardest, down 10.48 percent.

By turnover, Everest Bank's irredeemable debenture topped the chart with trades worth more than Rs 340 million, followed by Aankha Khola Jalvidyut with over Rs 320 million and Central Finance with over Rs 180 million.

Among sub-indices, every group except mutual funds closed in the red. The trading subgroup fell the most, down 1.71 percent, while non-life insurance — which had surged the previous day on the budget's third-party insurance provision — and the hotels and tourism group both slipped more than 1 percent. Analysts attribute Thursday's decline to heightened activity by short-term investors.

Technical View: 2,800 Is the Level to Beat

Technically, the index approached the 50-day moving average (50MA, currently at 2,789.63) for a second straight day, failed to cross it, and closed below the previous day's low — not a positive short-term signal, says analyst Ajit Khanal.

According to Khanal, Wednesday's session had formed a doji candle, a classic sign of market indecision. Thursday's breakdown below that doji's low shows the market lacks positive rhythm for now. The chart structure, in his reading, places the index inside an ascending triangle whose neckline sits near 2,800. If the index slips back to the rising support trendline, holds it and turns upward, that moment would mark the return of positive momentum, he says. A close above 2,800, meanwhile, would break out of the neckline and the 50MA simultaneously — making that level the decisive point right now.

On the indicators, the ADX, which had looked poised to turn up in recent days, has rolled over again. If both the ADX and the market keep falling, Khanal notes, it signals that the downtrend itself is gradually losing strength. The RSI, at 50.58, sits right around the midline in neutral territory.

The intraday action offered little encouragement either. The market opened with a small gap up, filled it within the first minute, set the day's high of 2,786.49 at 12:30, and then ground lower through the session in a pattern of lower highs and lower lows.

The turnover story cuts both ways. Total trading fell to around Rs 4.70 billion — and shrinking turnover on a red candle is, by itself, a positive sign. But the distribution tells a different story: in the single hour after 2 pm, the index dropped 10 points on Rs 2.21 billion of trades. That means roughly 47 percent of the entire day's turnover was packed into the final hour — precisely when the market fell the most. This selling pressure piling up at the close, Khanal says, is the market's main problem at present. The big players moved in the same direction: six of the ten largest brokers by turnover sold more than they bought.

Overall, while a market trading below its 50-day average looks weak in the short term, the ascending triangle structure and the support trendline remain intact — meaning the larger formation has not broken down. Which the index touches first in the coming days — the 2,800 level or the support trendline — will set the market's near-term direction, in Khanal's assessment. (This report is based on technical analysis; investors should do their own research before making any investment decision.)